Aotearoa Summary. 14 June 2019 - 19 June 2019

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are Big Bay, Lower Arawhata River, Upper Rakaia River, Murchison, North of D'Urville Island, South of Taranaki, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Mahia, Atiamuri, Northeast of East Cape.
Volcanos quiet.
The period is likely to be brief.

Update. 14 June 11.30pm
14 June.
North of East Cape 4.1 12.01am
North of East Cape 4.1 4.28am
North of East Cape 5.0 3.01pm
North of East Cape 4.0 6.12pm
Moderate solar conditions have arrived on cue.
Geonet data for offshore NZ is once again proving very unreliable.
USGS and EMSC have no record for the 3.01pm North of East Cape 5.0.
Solar conditions are steady as this update is posted.
The forecast period is extended to 15 June.
Local quakes are likely to be isolated.
Big Bay is is raised to Mag 5 risk.

Update. 16 June 6.30pm
15 June.
Rotorua 3.9 9.42pm
16 June.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 12.13am
Kermadec Islands/110km NE L'Esperance Rock 7.2 10.55am
Quakes were isolated on 15 June as spaceweather eased.
Biggest quake Rotorua 3.9 was close to the Atiamuri risk location but not close enough for the sceptics.
Solar conditions have fluctuated today but overall are fading.
The remote Kermadecs 7.2 this morning is too small and deep to create a tsunami.
Solar conditions are likely to fade on 17 June but given the heavy action, aftershocks in the Kermadecs and Bay of Plenty/East Cape quakes seem possible.
No Mag 4+ quakes to the north of New Zealand are recorded or plotted onto the map following the Kermadecs 7.2...there are too many.
Our main forecaster is flying to London tonight so no updates will be posted next day.

Summary.
14 June.
North of East Cape 4.1 12.01am
North of East Cape 4.1 4.28am
North of East Cape 5.0 3.01pm
North of East Cape 4.0 6.12pm
15 June.
Rotorua 3.9 9.42pm
16 June.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 12.13am
Kermadec Islands/110km NE L'Esperance Rock 7.2 10.55am
19 June.
Southwest of White Island 4.5 4.5 4.46pm
This forecast attempted to close up the number of risk locations in the Volcanic Plateau and East Cape areas with some success.
The biggest quake at Rotorua was 30km from the Atiamuri risk location. The Northeast of East Cape 4.1 was 100km approx. northeast of the Northeast of East Cape risk location.
Big action on 16 June at L'Esperance Rock/Kermadec Islands luckily never migrated south during the period.
The forecast was dropped on 17 June due to the lead forecaster travelling to London and then coming down with flu for a week.
Quakes went under Mag 4 from 19 June until a new forecast period 12 July.

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