Aotearoa Summary. 5 July 2019 - 10 July 2019

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are East Cape, Gisborne, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taupo, Atiamuri, Taumarunui, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, Cape Campbell, Upper Rakaia, Lower Arawhata.
White Island is hot and may be included later in the period.
Spaceweather is likely to continue for several days, the period is likely to be extended.
Note. No observations have been made for several days, some data is lost. The forecast is low confidence as the forecasters get back up to speed.

Update. 6 July 8.00pm
Local quakes are quiet on 6 July.
The Pacific outlook for Kermadecs action is being borne out so the forecasters are hanging on to the local forecast on 7 July.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be isolated.
Spaceweather has faded today but in true unpredictable fashion has slightly increased as this update is posted and may fluctuate ahead of a strong pickup on 9 July.
Risk locations are unchanged.
No real indication that White Island is about to erupt, Bay of Plenty quake action seems more likely.

Update. 8 July 9.00am
6 July.
Lake Taupo 3.8 + quake swarm 9.12pm
Edgecumbe 3.7 9.53pm
7 July.
Northeast of East Cape 3.8 12.28am
Quakes increased shortly after the previous update was posted.
Long term observers will recognise the weak quake response compared to the period 2013-2016 when solar activity was much higher and quake periods would bring a swag of Mag 4 quakes.
Solar Minimum in 2019 -2020 doesn't have the same power as 2013-2016 so quake responses are typically weaker.
Hurricanes are also less frequent, making a mockery of "climate change " predictions that man made weather will heat the planet and increase hurricanes.
Solar conditions are fluctuating and increasing slightly ahead of a bigger pickup on 9 July.
Risk locations are unchanged so the forecast map is retained through to 9 July.
Volcanos are quiet.

Update. 9 July 10.00am
8 July.
North of East Cape 4.0 10.18pm
Local quakes were quiet on 8 July as solar conditions faded away.
New solar conditions forecasted for 9 July are now here.
Risk locations are unchanged so the forecast map is retained.
Fiordland has some uncertainties but the forecasters have resisted adding risk locations.
No sign of any activity at White Island, the period isn't volcanic.
The period is likely to be extended.

Summary.
6 July.
Lake Taupo 3.8 + quake swarm 9.12pm
Edgecumbe 3.7 9.53pm
7 July.
Northeast of East Cape 3.8 12.28am
8 July.
North of East Cape 4.0 10.18pm
This forecast had some location success but magnitudes were barely at Mag 4.
The new solar conditions which arrived on 9 July were quite strong for Solar Minimum but have ominously not driven any Pacific or local quakes.
A buildup is underway so a new forecast map is being processed for 11-14 July with similar risk locations but increased magnitudes.
The period has shown no volcanic signal in New Zealand or the Pacific.

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