Pacific Summary. 5 July 2019 - 15 July 2019

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, North Solomon Sea, South Banda Sea, Timor, Eastern Himalaya, Offshore Oregon, Ridgecrest/California.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manam, Agung, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch.
The period is likely to be extended for several days.

Update. 7 July 8.30pm
6 July.
Ridgecrest, California 7.1 4.19am
North of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands 5.5 7.31am
The California 7.1 is luckily not near any big cities and apparently no casualties although damage is extensive.
Next biggest Pacific quake during the period has come in Kermadecs risk location.
The two quakes closeness in time is no coincidence.
Solar quake drivers affect the whole planet.
Any location under stress is more likely to release during periods of spaceweather.
Manam is apparently in minor eruption. More news may come later.
Spaceweather was fading until about an hour ago but has increased again and may fluctuate on a decreasing trend for the next two days.
Pacific quakes are likely to be isolated.
Ridgecrest is likely to get an aftershock sequence with possibly a Mag 6.
USGS seismologists are speculating an 8 percent chance of a bigger quake based on historical records.
The future is never certain but this Service feels the sequence is unlikely to get bigger due to fading solar quake driving conditions.
Papua New Guinea Highlands, Offshore Kamchatka are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Solar conditions are due to increase strongly on 9 July and quake frequency and magnitude is likely to increase in response then

Update. 8 July 9.00am
7 July.
Molucca Sea 6.9 4.08pm
The forecast update went looking for quake action in Papua New Guinea but action came in nearby Molucca Sea.
California is now in an aftershock sequence with little real action. New solar conditions due 9 July could bring a Mag 5/6 aftershock.
Agung is quiet, no news for other volcanos...its the weekend.
Risk locations are unchanged so the forecast map is retained.
Kermadec Islands are higher risk.

Update. 9 July 10.00am
8 July.
Molucca Sea 5.9 7.52pm
Pacific quakes were mostly quiet as spaceweather faded away on 8 July.
The Molucca Sea 5.9 was an aftershock to the previous days Mag 6.9.
California is quiet.
Volcanos are quiet.
New solar conditions forecasted for 9 July are now here.
Risk locations haven't changed so the forecast map is retained.
Kermadec Islands remain higher risk.
A significant Mag 5/6 California quake is possible.
Researchers looking for planetary alignments as a possible cause for quakes are pointing out some major alignments today, including Saturn-Earth- Sun.
The forecasters here tend towards scepticism but try to keep an open mind...with solar conditions in play the question becomes whether the sun or the alignment drives any quakes during the period.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 11 July 11.00am
Pacific quakes and volcanos are quiet.
New solar conditions on 9 July were moderately strong and ominously continuing today.
A quake buildup is underway with a possible strong release in the next few days.
California remains a hotspot for a Mag 5/6 aftershock.
Risk locations are largely unchanged so the forecast map is retained.
Pacific quakes are likely to be isolated.
Possiblility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low.

Update. 12 July 10.00am
12 July.
North of Bougainville 6.0 5.08am
The 500km very deep Bougainville 6.0 hasn't made news and probably didn't even loosen any coconuts on the shores of Bougainville.
The quake is significant however because deep quakes are often precursors for following shallow quakes.
Strong solar conditions continued today on a weakening trend as the end of the period slowly approaches.
More isolated quake activity seems possible in the next two days.
Northern Bismarck Sea, Southern Philippines are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
California is quiet.
Volcanos are quiet.

Summary.
6 July.
Ridgecrest, California 7.1 4.19am
North of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands 5.5 7.31am
Eruption Manam
7 July.
Molucca Sea 6.9 4.08pm
8 July.
Molucca Sea 5.9 7.52pm
12 July.
North of Bougainville 6.0 5.08am
Northern Mindanao 5.8 9.42pm
13 July.
Okinawa 6.1 1.57am
14 July.
Offshore Northwest Australia 6.6 7.20pm
Southern Halmahera 7.3 9.10pm
15 July.
New Britain 6.2 8.21pm
This forecast began very well with many forecast elements working.
The Ridgecrest risk location was justified, following the Ridgecrest 6.4 foreshock a day earlier. Spaceweather was building during the foreshock phase and there was plenty of energy to drive the Ridgecrest 7.1 mainshock.
The Kermadecs 5.5 was next biggest Pacific quake on 6 July and also in a risk location.
The forecast update went looking for new quake action in Papua New Guinea and the frustratingly close Molucca Sea 6.9 followed.
Solar conditions increased on 9 July but no new quakes came.
A buildup was underway and by 11 July, Mag 7 risk was added to the Pacific and low confidence Mag 6 to New Zealand.
The 12 July addition of Southern Philippines to risk locations was justified with the Northern Mindanao 5.8 a few hours later.
The forecast suffered the same fate as the Aotearoa forecast, not being updated from 12 July.
The main forecaster was travelling abroad and was distracted for a few days.
Regardless, Mag 7 risk was justified, the 14 July Halmahera 7.3 frustratingly missing the nearby Papua New Guinea new risk location.
The 15 July New Britain 6.2 was also frustratingly close to new risk location Northern Bismarck Sea.
The narrowed North Bismarck Sea location would normally have covered the whole Bismarck Sea and New Britain in previous forecasts, the narrowed location not working this time.
Quakes faded away from 15 July.

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