Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

California 7.1 6 July 2019

United States Geological Survey seismologists are in a horribly unenviable position today as the public demand what will happen next in the Californian desert following an even bigger quake.
Their speculation that there is an 8 percent chance of a bigger quake is based on historical data and not much better than pinning the tail on the donkey.
There is some good news however.
No casualties so far but many buildings shifted off their foundations.
The sequence is not on the dreaded San Andreas Fault and 150km from Los Angeles.
Spaceweather is fading today so the likelihood of a bigger quake in the next three days seems slight.
More spaceweather from 9 July is likely to lead to an increase in quake frequency but not necessarily magnitude.
Next biggest Pacific quake during the forecast period is at Kermadecs Islands 5.5 risk location.
Thanks.