Pacific Summary. 1 August 2019 - 4 August 2019
The promised 2 August Pacific forecast was never offered. The forecasters were beaten by the spaceweather conditions and got the start of the period wrong. The period began on 1 August. Jumping in with a late forecast as the period ends has proven problematic in the past and the forecast often ended out of phase with events. Even though hard data is the basis for any forecast, there always remains an intuitive element....just like riding a bike. Push on the pedals, steer with the handlebars but unless there is balance and confidence you won't be riding anywhere. A summary is offered for the period instead of a forecast. Indonesia, Banda Sea, Philippines, Taiwan, Tonga, South Sandwich Islands seem more likely locations for any remaining quakes during the period. Minor volcanic activity in Java may also follow. 1 August. Northwest of Ambrym 6.6 3.02am 2 August. Chile 6.8 6.28am 3 August. Java/South of Sunda Strait 6.8 12.03am Update. 4 August 3.00pm 2 August. Eruption Ulawan, Tangkuban Parahu 3 August. Eruption Suwanosejima Pacific quakes have slowed down as eruptions increase. Eruptions typically follow quakes in any period. The Ulawan eruption on New Britain was apparently very explosive, to 20 000 meters. More action at Ulawan seems very likely. Java is under pressure and always a forecast pick, another small phreatic eruption at Tangkuban Parahu was likely following the 26 July eruption which had people running for their lives. Presumably the Indonesian seismologists have closed the area since the earlier eruption. New spaceweather conditions are due late 5 August, a forecast is being processed. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
