Aotearoa Summary. 5 August 2019 - 14 August 2019

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Magnitude 6 risk location is Snares Islands.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are George Sound, Offshore Milford Sound, Pyke River, Olivine Range, Lower Arawhata.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Hanmer Springs, Cook Strait, Dannevirke, Taumarunui, Taupo, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Opotiki, Whakatane, East Cape.
Volcanoes quiet.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 5 August 10.00pm
5 August.
100km North of East Cape 4.7 2.55am
Moderately strong solar quake driving conditions arrived at midday.
A buildup is underway and is likely to last several days.
South Island and further south are higher risk locations.

6 August.
Cook Strait 4.1 3.38am
This quake was probably felt quite strongly in Wellington but Geonet don't have any comments on any of their various pages anymore.
This sad situation occurred last year when they blocked comments in response to the public outcry for them to grow up and address the quake forecasting of online nerd Dutchsinse.
His forecasts are very scratchy at best and poor science, giving Geonet experts/technicians a good chance to knock him over.
Instead they went paranoid and cut everyone off.
Solar conditions are set to last for a few days so more quakes are likely, including Cook Strait.

Update. 7 August 10.00pm
7 August.
100km NW of Snares Islands 4.0 3.44am
Solar conditions are slowly weakening today as a long quake period sets in with the potential for an isolated large quake.
Good location success today although Geonet data is unreliable...they mapped a Mag 5.8 on 4 August in this area but USGS recorded Mag 4.8, a very large discrepancy.
Quakes are likely to remain isolated on 8 August, increasing again from 9 August for a few days as a long period draws out.
Haast is added to Mag 5 risk locations.

Update. 8 August 5.00pm
Haast is added as Mag 6 risk location. Confidence =low.

Update. 10 August 9.30pm
9 August.
South of Kermadecs 5.1 4.32am
Local quakes were infrequent 9-10 August.
Solar conditions are increasing again tonight.
Local quakes may increase in frequency and magnitude 11-12 August.
Haast, Landsborough remains Mag 6 risk. Confidence=low.

Update. 13 August 9.30pm
12 August.
Southwest of Motueka/Ngatimoti 5.2 8.44am
10 Km North Milford Sound 5.5 10.35pm
13 August.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 12.34am
South of Kermadecs 5.2 10.22am
South of Kermadecs 5.2 1.45pm
South of Kermadecs 5.2 6.34pm
The outlook for South Island quakes to increase 11-12 August came true on 12 August with big quakes at both ends of the island.
The Milford Sound 5.5 gives some credit to the high magnitude outlook for Haast, Landsborough.
The longer term outlook from recent forecasts for some bigger South Island quakes is also borne out.
Solar conditions are just above the threshold for quakes tonight and likely to continue on 14 August on a weakening trend.
Risk locations and Magnitudes are unchanged on 14 August.
Murchison, Upper Taramakau, Upper Waitaha, Upper Hokitika are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be infrequent.
Additional information can be found at Facebook/Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service or Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Summary.
5 August.
100km North of East Cape 4.7 2.55am
6 August.
Cook Strait 4.1 3.38am
7 August.
100km NW of Snares Islands 4.0 3.44am
9 August.
South of Kermadecs 5.1 4.32am
12 August.
Southwest of Motueka/Ngatimoti 5.2 8.44am
10 Km North Milford Sound 5.5 10.35pm
13 August.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 12.34am
South of Kermadecs 5.2 10.22am
South of Kermadecs 5.2 1.45pm
South of Kermadecs 5.2 6.34pm
14 August.
Southwest of Snares Islands 4.4 4.15am
The forecast period began sluggishly in typical Solar Minimum fashion but grew into a very active and successful forecast period.
Astute observers may also realise that particularly strong winter storms arrived during the period in New Zealand and around the world.
Rare snow fell on West Coast beaches and very heavy falls in the Southern Alps.
Cat 3 typhoon Lekima caused severe flooding damage in China.
Southern India monsoon rains were exceptionally heavy and whole regions were left underwater, far more than usual for the monsoon.
Inland New South Wales towns also received very rare dustings of snow.
Greenland and Europe are in the grip of big heatwaves, another typical Little Ice Age weather feature.
Climate change pseudoscientists and media have been having a field day pointing out these cherrypicked weather events as proof of "climate change"to their deluded followers.
The 6 August Cook Strait 4.1 was widely felt and got the forecast period off to a good start.
Quakes then were quiet for several days as solar conditions slowly wound up the pressure.
Haast was added as Mag 5 risk on 7 August and then Mag 6 on 8 August as pressure built in the South Island.
The deep Motueka 5.2 on 12 August marked a release following a few days of foreshocks in the area, meeting the forecast parameter for 11-12 August to be the peak.
Failing to add the location as Mag 4/5 risk was a forecasting mistake...the indicators were present.
The Milford Sound 5.5 later in the day gave redemption to the forecast and close to the Haast Mag 6 risk location.
Quakes far to the north and south of New Zealand continued 13 August but onshore quakes faded away along with spaceweather.
Spaceweather conditions look set to be quiet for at least a week. Residual quakes, if any, will be very isolated.


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