Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 11 August 2014 - 13 August 2014

Quake activity may increase. Lunar modulation may centre this activity around low tide. Magnitude 5+ risk areas and times are Fiordland 7am, 7pm (approx). Magnitude 4+ risk areas and times are Bay of Plenty/East Cape 1am, 1pm; Taranaki Bight/Buller 5am, 5pm; Northern Wairarapa/Christchurch 12am, 12pm. Quakes may be widespread and building toward the end of the period. Volcanoes quiet. Weather during the period should be as forecasted by standard services. Heavy rain for the West Coast on 12 August will be just that. Hurricanes won't develop further at the moment. Thanks. Forecast Update 12 August. 9 August. North of East Cape 4.2, South of Kermadecs 4.4. 11 August. Fiordland 4.3, Christchurch 3.3, Kermadecs 5.5. Hello Observers, The forecast period has arrived first in the South Island. Quake activity may shift to the North Island in the next day. This Service is offline for a few days, observations will be incomplete. Watch out for East Cape/Bay of Plenty/North Wairarapa Magnitude 4+ on 19-20 and 22 August. Forecast confidence = low. Thanks. Summary. 11 August Fiordland 4.3, Kermadecs 5.5, Christchurch 3.3. 12 August North of White Island 4.1. 13 August Western Taranaki Bight 3.8. 15 August Northern Wairarapa 3.8, 3.3. 16 August Christchurch 3.7. Quakes were widespread as expected during the period, rumbling on until August 16 with strong tidal correlation. Click on the Facebook link to see the latest volcano news. Thanks. Summary 19-20 and 22 August 19 August Magnitude 3+ swarm across NZ on 19 Aug coincided with bright but brief aurorae and strong seismicity under Bardarbunga Seismologists in Iceland are reporting a 25 km rift of shallow quakes and some are saying the volcano had already had a minor eruption under its thick ice cap. 22 August was globally quiet, big action coming late on 24 August instead. Click the link to our Facebook page for more volcano news.