Pacific Summary. 1 September 2019 - 4 September 2019
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Tanna, Northern Vanuatu, Bougainville, North Solomon Sea, Eastern New Britain, West Java, Southern Sumatra, North Molucca Sea, Okinawa, Izu Islands, Eastern Honshu, Rat Islands, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Lima, Peru/South of Pucallpa, Lima, Nazca, Arequipa, Titicaca, South of Valdivia. Volcanic activity may increase. Krakatau, Karangetang, Asama, Sangay. The forecast period is likely to be extended to a peak 1 September. Update. 29 August 11.00pm 28 August. South Sandwich Islands/South of Bristol Island 6.6 11.55am, 5.6, 5.6 Eruption Stromboli 29 August. Offshore Northern Honshu 6.1 11.46am Moderate solar quake and eruption driving conditions arrived on cue. A big eruption of Stromboli has followed. Another big eruption of Stromboli during the period seems very unlikely. The volcano typically erupts years apart but this year has unusually seen two big eruptions on 3 July and 28 August. The remote Bristol Island 6.6, 5.6, 5.6 sequence had penguin eggs rolling around but no other damage. The Honshu 6.1 has given better location success. Solar conditions have weakened since the beginning of the forecast period. An isolated Mag 6 Pacific quake is possible 30/31 August until a quake peak on 1 September. Peru is higher risk. Update. 30 August 10.30pm 30 August. Offshore Oregon 6.3 3.07am Isolated quakes continue ahead of a potentially strong peak on 1 September. No location success today. Isolated Mag 6 is possible 31 August. Peru remains higher risk. Update. 31 August 12.30pm The expected 1 September increase in solar quake driving conditions is here now. An uptick in quake frequency and magnitude is likely to follow. Offshore Vancouver Island, Haida Gwai are added to Mag 6 risk locations. The area of the 30 August Offshore Oregon 6.3 may also receive more Mag 6 quakes. Piton de la Fournaise is added to volcanos. Stromboli may erupt explosively. Update. 1 September 10.30am Aurora watchers are having a dreamtime as the energy from the sun flows in. Quakes are tight however with little action. A buildup is underway. The period may go volcanic. No data for volcanos today...its Sunday. Quakes may be lunar modulated to low tide. Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Update. 2 September 6.30am South of Fiji 6.7 3.54am Spaceweather conditions are high today. A 600km very deep Fiji quake is early action. Hurricane Dorian has increased to Cat 5 with the increase in spaceweather. Conditions look set to continue for a few days. The forecast outlook for the period becoming very powerful is gaining substance. Summary. 28 August. South Sandwich Islands/South of Bristol Island 6.6 11.55am, 5.6, 5.6 Eruption Stromboli 29 August. Offshore Northern Honshu 6.1 11.46am 30 August. Offshore Oregon 6.3 3.07am 1 September. Hurricane Dorian Cat 5 2 September. South of Fiji 6.7 3.54am 3 September. Eruption Ubinas 4 September. Eruption Tarangkuban Parahu The period produced strong auroras coinciding with the power up of Hurricane Dorian to Cat 5. Sadly the storm became stationary over the Northern Bahamas and over 1000 people perished during the storm due to high winds and a heavy storm surge and high perigee tides. Quakes were steady during the period but location success was limited. A big eruption of Stromboli early in the period and late volcanic activity. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
