Pacific Summary. 1 October 2019 - 21 October 2019

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Pacific Summary . 25 September- 21 October, 2019.

Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Bougainville, New Britain, South Banda Sea, Timor, Western Java, Southern Sumatra, Molucca Sea, Northern Philippines, Central Kuril Islands, Aleutian Islands, Inland Colombia, Atacama.
Volcanic activity may increase later in the period.
Nevados de Chillan, Ubinas, Etna.
The period may build slowly towards a peak on 29 September.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 27 September 11.30pm
25 September.
Southwest Indian Ocean 6.1 9.19am
26 September.
North Banda Sea 6.5 11.46am
27 September.
Inland Southern Argentina 6.1 4.36am
Spaceweather arrived on cue but quickly faded.
Moderate quakes have followed.
The North Banda Sea 6.5 near to the South Banda Sea risk location.
Previously Banda Sea was given as a risk location but in recent forecasts the location has tended to be ambitiously split into north and south in the quest for accuracy.
More Banda Sea quakes are possible during the period.
Strong spaceweather forecasted for 29 September may arrive earlier on 28 September with a quake uptick.
Central Peru is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Shiveluch, Etna are added to volcanos.

Update. 29 September 12.00am
28 September.
Kermadec Islands 6.0 12.05am
Early solar conditions were arriving as the previous update was posted, justifying bringing forward the arrival time.
Good risk location success at Macauley Island in the Kermadecs Group.
Volcanos are quiet.
Strong solar conditions are likely to bring low frequency Mag 6 activity 29-30 September, switching to higher frequency quakes on 1 October as quakes peak.
Volcanos may also pick up from 1 October.

Update. 1 October 12.00am
28 September.
Eruption Shiveluch
30 September.
Chile/South of Valparaiso 6.8 4.57am
Daily Mag 6 quakes are keeping the forecast period alive with mixed location success.
Spaceweather continues on 1 October.
Quakes seem likely to continue with a daily Pacific Mag 6.
Manam, Uluwan are added to volcanos.

Update. 2 October 5.00pm
1 October.
Eruption Ulawan, Etna.
Eruptions dominate the end of the forecast period.
The Ulawan eruption may have happened before the forecast was posted...volcano data can be slow to arrive.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes or eruptions may occur 3 October as spaceweather fades away.
South Sandwich Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
West Java, Southern Sumatra, Atacama are higher risk.
An updated map is unavailable due to technical problems.
A map and further information are available on Facebook/Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service or Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Update. 3 October 10.30pm
1 October.
Eruption Shiveluch, Manam, Nevados de Chillan.
Eruption data is starting to come in and the last days of the forecast period have become volcanic. Eruptions tend to follow quakes in any period.
The second Shiveluch eruption in a few days was moderate and other eruptions mild.
Pacific quakes have been weakening along with spaceweather which is now at the quake threshold and falling.
A slight spaceweather pickup is possible late on 4 October before conditions fade away for several days.
The forecast period is extended to 4 October.
Quakes and eruptions, if any, are likely to be mild.

Summary.
25 September.
Southwest Indian Ocean 6.1 9.19am
26 September.
North Banda Sea 6.5 11.46am
27 September.
Inland Southern Argentina 6.1 4.36am
28 September.
Kermadec Islands 6.0 12.05am
Eruption Shiveluch
30 September.
Chile/South of Valparaiso 6.8 4.57am
1 October.
Eruption Ulawan, Etna, Shiveluch, Manam, Nevados de Chillan.
This forecast had some location success and some timing success with the forecasted 29 September quake peak.
The biggest quake of the period arrived early 30 September along with a large number of moderate volcanic eruptions.
The period was typically a Solar Minimum pattern of moderate activity spread out over a long period rather than Solar Maximum 2012-2016 where quakes were more clearly contained within shorter periods.
Pacific quakes went quiet until the 17 October Philippines 6.4.

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