Aotearoa Summary. 1 November 2019 - 8 November 2019

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Aotearoa Summary. 25 October - 8 November, 2019.

Magnitude 5 risk locations are Offshore George Sound, Pyke River, Murchison, West Taranaki Bight, Northern Hawkes Bay, Wairoa, Gisborne, East Cape, Northeast of East Cape, Opotiki, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taupo.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Haast, Lower Landsborough Valley, Upper Wanganui Valley, Upper Waitaha Valley, Mt French, Lower Clarence Valley, Tapuaenuku, North of D'Urville Island, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Hastings, Mahia, Northern Urewera, Murupara, Taihape, Ohakune, West of Ruapehu, North of Motiti Island.
Volcanos quiet.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand from 28 October. Confidence=low.
The 24 October 9.53pm Offshore George Sound 5.0 (USGS, EMSC) occurred before this forecast is posted.
Further quakes are possible at George Sound during the period.
Quakes may be isolated during the period ahead of a pickup from 28 October.
The forecast period is likely to be extended beyond 28 October for several days.
Lunar modulation may modulate quakes to local low tide.
White Island may be added to volcanos after 28 October.

Update. 28 October 3.00pm
24 October.
Offshore George Sound 5.6 Geonet, 5.0 USGS,EMSC 9.53pm
26 October.
Taranaki Bight 4.0 8.19am
27 October.
100km East of Cook Strait 4.1 9.03pm
28 October.
Southern Kaimai Ranges 5.0 5.44am
Spaceweather is strong and steady on 28 October.
The outlook for a 28 October quake pickup is met.
Todays Kaimai 5.0 was 275km deep, causing no damage at the surface but typically felt over a wide area for a deep quake, in Hawkes Bay and Wellington.
Location success is good, just a few kilometers north of Mag 5 target area and linked to the north of Motiti Island risk location.
The Taranaki Bight 4.0 is about 20km from Mag 5 risk location.
No sign of any volcanic activity at White Island.
White Island is likely to remain quiet for the rest of the period.
The 24 October George Sound 5.6 occurred before this forecast was posted. A casual Facebook outlook for the period was made at the time but a forecast wasn't made until 26 October.
The George Sound 5.6 is included on the Summary because it came with the spaceweather which began the quake period.
Wide variation in Magnitude between seismological observatories. USGS and EMSC Mag 5.0 seems more sensible than the Geonet 5.6
More quake action is possible at George Sound during the period.
The April 2019 long term outlook and the 25-29 October 2019 short term for Mag 6 is current.
Be careful.
The period is extended to 29 October.

Update. 29 October 12.00am
28 October.
Northwest of Snares Islands 4.3 11.47pm
Spaceweather is strong tonight.
Big action in New Zealand on 28 October.
A Whakatane Mag 2/3 quake swarm and Snares 4.3 tonight.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand 29 October is current.
Be careful.

Update. 29 October 11.00pm
29 October.
South of Upper Breaksea Sound 4.5 3.47am
20km West of Puysegur Point 4.0 9.57am
Local quake conditions are growing today.
Fiordland is increased to Mag 6 risk on 30 October.
Spaceweather is weakening today but new conditions are possible late 30 October.
Be careful.

Update. 1 November 11.30am
30 October.
West of Puysegur Point 4.3 3.30am
Local quakes have gone quiet.
Spaceweather has been very tricky last two days with the arrival of unexpected conditions, a weak Coronal Mass Ejection.
The magnetic connection between Sun and Earth has been much weaker than forecasted as a result of the CME.
Conditions are returning to normal today and infrequent quakes may resume.
The forecast period is extended to 1 November.
Mag 6 confidence=low.
Local vulcanologists have announced that White Island sulphur dioxide gas levels are highest since 2016 with geysering at the surface.
Forecasts in recent weeks for low level eruptive activity at White Island are likely to be repeated soon although the volcano shows no sign of erupting in this forecast period.

Update. 1 November 11.00pm
1 November.
West Taranaki Bight 4.2 2.30pm
Perfect location success from todays only local Mag 4 quake.
Spaceweather is still proving a tricky read and the Sun-Earth magnetic connection remains weak although likely to switch at any time.
The period is producing isolated large quakes around the Pacific with New Zealand a hotspot.
Isolated local quake activity is possible on 2 November.
High magnitude remains a possibility.
Risk locations are unchanged.

Update. 4 November 11.00am
4 November.
North of East Cape 5.3 5.07am USGS, EMSC, GEOFON ; 5.9 Geonet
30km West of Whakatane 4.1
North Island is quaking today as the solar magnetic connection with Earth, weak for several days, reconnects.
Several deep Pacific quakes at Mindanao/Philippines, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Kermadec Islands have occurred today over a few hours and more action may follow today or tomorrow.
Confusion over the magnitude of the North of East Cape 5.3.
Geonet as usual seem to be the odd ones out.
Spaceweather is generally weakening, despite the magnetic reconnection.
Pacific and local quakes may increase 4/5 November with a short burst of quakes but are likely to fade away after that as spaceweather goes quiet.
Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.
Southwest Pacific, including New Zealand is higher Mag 6 risk.
Be careful.

Update. 6 November 12.30am
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 5 November.
Big action at Tonga hasn't come this way so far during the period.
The forecast outlook for Southwest Pacific high risk is justified.
Fluctuating spaceweather conditions are challenging the forecasters.
Spaceweather now seems likely to increase 6 November.
The forecast period is extended to 6 November.
Risk locations are unchanged.
Southwest Pacific, including New Zealand remains higher Mag 6 risk.
Be careful.

Summary.
24 October.
Offshore George Sound 5.6 Geonet, 5.0 USGS,EMSC 9.53pm
26 October.
Taranaki Bight 4.0 8.19am
27 October.
100km East of Cook Strait 4.1 9.03pm
28 October.
Southern Kaimai Ranges 5.0 5.44am
Northwest of Snares Islands 4.3 11.47pm
29 October.
South of Upper Breaksea Sound 4.5 3.47am
20km West of Puysegur Point 4.0 9.57am
30 October.
West of Puysegur Point 4.3 3.30am
1 November.
West Taranaki Bight 4.2 2.30pm
4 November.
North of East Cape 5.3 5.07am USGS, EMSC, GEOFON ; 5.9 Geonet
30km West of Whakatane 4.1
7 November.
Atiamuri 4.1 9.11pm
8 November.
South of Kermadecs 5.1 7.26am
West of Levin 4.1 6.59pm
9 November.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 9.53pm
The period was powerful with many forecast parameters met and some big quakes in New Zealand and the Southwest Pacific.
The forecast was messy at the start but recovered with some excellent location successes.
Spaceweather arrived on 24 October, a day early and the forecasters could only make a casual Facebook posting, promising a detailed forecast next day.
The George Sound 5.0 came just as the post was made...Murphys Law.
Additionally, Geonet were way outside other seismological observatories who recorded 5.0, Geonet were 5.6
The forecasters believe George Sound 5.0 was the correct magnitude.
George Sound was already quaking for two days so an easy forecast pick was lost.
Typically Little Ice Age spaceweather gives a broader, flatter quake response...quakes were spread evenly through the period with no real peak.
The addition of extra risk locations to Taranaki Bight was justified.
The 28 October Southern Kaimai Ranges 5.0 got a few people out of bed and was felt far away in Wellington.
A quake swarm west of Puysegur Point prompted an increase in magnitude risk at Fiordland but quakes switched to the North Island.
More Taranaki Bight quakes during the period justified the extra risk locations.
The 4 November North of East Cape 5.3, for the second time during the period, showed Geonet observational inadequecies.
The Whakatane 4.1 followed soon after the North of East Cape 5.3....there is a link.
The forecast wasn't updated from 6 November.
Spaceweather was slowly fading and residual quakes came in risk locations, giving great substance to the forecast map.
Mild, brief spaceweather due late 11 November may bring a brief burst of local quakes 12 November before quickly fading.
A forecast will be posted later and is likely to be very similar to the present map.




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