Pacific Summary. 1 November 2019 - 8 November 2019

Click to Enlarge
Pacific Summary. 25 October-8 November, 2019.

Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, Northern Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Papua, South Molucca Sea, South Celebes Sea, Offshore Oregon, Northern California, Southern Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Central Peru, South Sandwich Islands, Southern Italy.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Piton de la Fournaise, Etna, Kliuchevskoi, Shishaldin, Lateiki.
The forecast period may build to a peak on 28 October.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 28 October 1.30pm
26 October.
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Shishaldin.
Strong spaceweather arrived on cue and is running today.
Quakes remain quiet so far during the period with a pickup possible from today.
Good timing success at Piton de la Fournaise which had been expanding for several days.
The eruption came soon after the arrival of spaceweather late on 25 October.
The forecast period is extended to 29 October.
Western New Britain, Central Offshore Sumatra are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 29 October 12.30am
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 28 October.
Pacific eruptions were quiet.
Spaceweather is strong tonight.
Northern California risk location is active tonight.
Pinnacles/San Andreas/North of San Francisco are Mag 6 risk locations.
New Zealand is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The forecast period is extended to 29 October.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low.
Sangay, Asosan, Kucihonerabujima, Rinjani are added to volcanos.

Update. 29 October 10.20pm
29 October.
Southern Philippines/Central Mindanao 6.6 2.04pm
Todays Mindanao 6.6 was in the same location as the 17 October 6.4.
No location success, the forecast is looking for action much further south.
Volcanos are apparently quiet.
The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise is ending.
Spaceweather is weakening today ahead of a late pickup on 30 October which could bring more quakes during the typically active last days of the period.

Update. 1 November 12.00pm
31 October.
Mindanao/Philippines 6.5 2.11pm
Third big quake in same Philippines location since 17 October.
Pacific quakes and eruptions are otherwise quiet.
Unforecasted spaceweather, a weak Coronal Mass Ejection, has created weak magnetic connection between Sun and Earth.
Normal but rapidly weakening spaceweather has resumed today and may result in isolated Pacific quakes.
The forecast period is extended to 1 November.
East of Bougainville, Bougainville, New Britain are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 4 November 11.30am
3 November.
South Sandwich Islands 6.1 7.08am
The Southwest Pacific is quaking today as the solar magnetic connection with Earth, weak for several days, reconnects.
Deep quakes at Vanuatu, Kermadec Islands, Solomon Islands could lead to further action today and tomorrow.
A deep quake at the location of several recent and damaging quakes in Southern Philippines/Mindanao could lead to yet another big quake there.
Most of the higher risk locations are already covered by the forecast.
Spaceweather, despite the magnetic reconnection, is fading.
Pacific quakes may undergo a short burst of activity 4/5 November and then fade away as spaceweather also fades away.
Southwest Pacific, including New Zealand is higher risk.

Update. 6 November 12.00am
4 November.
Eruption Lateiki, Shiveluch
5 November.
Chile/North of Valparaiso 6.1 10.53am
Tonga/130km Northwest of Neiafu 6.6, 5.5 11.43am
The forecast outlook for a burst of activity 4/5 November is borne out as spaceweather picks up again and quakes soon follow.
Tonga is the hotspot with the eruption of Lateiki ongoing and a Mag 6.6, 5.5 double quake in the same area.
Japanese vulcanologists are warning of increasing activity at Sakurajima, Kuchinoerabujima, Asosan.
Spaceweather now seems likely to increase again 6 November.
The forecast period is extended to 6 November.
Japanese volcanos are very hot and higher risk for eruptions.
New Zealand remains Pacific Mag 6 risk. Confidence=low.

Summary.
26 October.
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Shishaldin.
29 October.
Southern Philippines/Central Mindanao 6.6 2.04pm
31 October.
Mindanao/Philippines 6.5 2.11pm
3 November.
South Sandwich Islands 6.1 7.08am
4 November.
Eruption Lateiki, Shiveluch
5 November.
Chile/North of Valparaiso 6.1 10.53am
Tonga/130km Northwest of Neiafu 6.6, 5.5 11.43am
Eruption Manam
6 November.
Northern Vanuatu 6.0, 5.8 12.17pm
7 November.
Eruption Sakurajima, Merapi
8 November.
South of Fiji 6.5 11.44pm
The forecast period was a powerful one with many forecast parameters met.
Strong spaceweather arrived on cue and an eruption at Piton de la Fournaise followed.
The volcano had been expanding for several days prior to the eruption.
Typically for Little Ice Age spaceweather, conditions eased for a couple of days until 29 October.
Two big quakes at Philippines/Mindanao followed the 16 October Mindanao 6.4, causing a lot of structural damage but few casualties.
The forecasters never imagined three big quakes in the same area.
Persistently strong spaceweather portended more action during early November and a powerful period.
Good location success 3 November at South Sandwich Islands 6.1.
The period became more volcanic from 4 November as high risk location Northern Tonga became a Pacific hotspot, meeting forecast outlook.
Remote Tongan volcano Lateiki erupted again during the period, following several weeks of eruptions.
The 5 November Tonga 6.5, 5.5 double quake was in the same area as Lateiki.
Big quakes Vanuatu and South of Fiji gave justification to the forecast outlook for SW Pacific as the hotspot.
Eruptions late in the period rounded out a very successful forecast.
Java volcano Merapi is in constant low eruption in 2019 but a bigger eruption had locals worried.
Sunda Strait volcano Krakatau is also hot with constant small eruptions.
No sign of any action at Rinjani or Agung despite other Java Zone volcanos heating up.
Not much news to go with Manam eruption.
Sakurajima is in constant daily eruption but the 7 November eruption was substantially bigger than average....other volcanos in the area were also very hot during the period.
North California was active during the period but fortunately no big quakes...the San Andreas Fault running through San Francisco will inevitably move one day but not during this period.
A brief spaceweather spell may bring quakes 11/12 November before fading. A forecast will be posted later.


Content © Roary Arbon 2013 - 2016
Website Design by Go Tech.