Aotearoa Summary. 1 December 2019 - 6 December 2019

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Aotearoa Summary. 21 November, 2019 - 6 December, 2019.

Magnitude 5 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, South of Taranaki, Taumarunui, KInloch, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Southern Kaimais, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest Te Anau, Pyke River, Haast, Paringa, Upper Rakaia River, Southern Kahurangi, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Hastings, Northern Hawkes Bay, Taihape, Taupo, Murupara.
Phreatic (steam) or low level ash eruption possible at White Island later in the period.
The period is likely to be extended for several days.

Update. 23 November 12.30pm
22 November.
Waipukurau 3.7 12.18am
South of Kermadecs 5.1 10.21pm
Moderate quake driving solar conditions arrived on cue.
Pacific and local quakes are mostly quiet during the period so far.
Biggest local quake north of Waipukurau has given good location success but low magnitude.
Moderate solar conditions are likely to continue for several days.
Solar conditions are weaker than the 25 October - 8 November forecast period as Spring Equinox advances and solar conditions typically weaken.
Isolated local quakes up to Mag 5 are possible 23-24 November.
East Cape is added to Mag 4 risk locations.
White Island remains low level eruption risk later in the period.

Update. 24 November 1.15pm
24 November.
10 km NE White Island 5.9 5.34am 115km depth.
Pacific quakes, including New Zealand have come alive today.
Solar quake driving conditions have been steady through the period so far in a buildup phase.
Geonet have the quake epicentered at about 10km northeast of White Island.
Typically, United States Geological Survey and European Mediterranean Seismological Center have the quake somewhere else at about 10km southeast of White Island.
The moderately deep quake has caused no damage but was widely felt as far away as Nelson and Blenheim.
Solar conditions seem set to last through to a possible new quake peak on 28 November.
Isolated Mag 5/6 quakes are possible 25-28 November.
Mag 6 confidence=low.
Southern Fiordland is added to Mag 5 risk locations.
South of Wanganui, North of D'Urville Island are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
White Island eruption risk continues from 28 November.

Update. 26 November 12.00am
Local quakes are quiet.
Vulcanologists have announced that White Island is hot.
Spaceweather is mild but steady and likely to stay steady until a new peak 28 November.
Local and Pacific quakes are in a buildup phase and seem likely to stay isolated until 28 November and a new quake peak arrives.
White Island is slowly heating up and may follow the path of the 2013 eruption series and some of the earliest forecasts from this Service.
Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.
Isolated Mag 5/6 quakes are possible 26/27 November.
Mag 6 confidence=low.

Update. 28 November 12.30am
26 November.
Te Kaha 3.9 9.18am
North of Milford Sound 3.7 5.23pm
27 November.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 8.23pm
Bay of Plenty northwards remains the hotspot.
Pacific quakes have eased along with easing spaceweather.
A late burst of spaceweather may arrive 28 November before fading away as the forecast period ends.
Local and Pacific quakes may pick up 28 November.
Mag 5/6 quakes are possible. Mag 6 confidence=low.
White Island is hot and getting hotter.
Steam or low level ash eruption is possible 28 November.

Update. 29 November 11.30pm
Local quakes are quiet.
The late mild burst of spaceweather has arrived with brief auroras but hasn't driven any quakes yet.
The forecast period is extended to 30 November and likely to end soon.
White Island is still heating up and may go into eruption next days or a following forecast period.
An eruption is probably underway at Tongan volcano Lateiki or another Tonga or Kermadec volcano.
Lateiki has erupted regularly last few forecast periods and seems likely to be erupting again.
A late local Mag 5 quake is still possible before solar conditions fade away.
Mag 6 seems unlikely.

Update. 1 December 3.30pm
30 November.
Mahia 4.0 6.30am
1 December.
Methven 4.4 3.56am
Local quakes have picked up again following the 28 November arrival of mild solar conditions.
Spaceweather has picked up slightly instead of fading with fluctuations making for challenging forecasting...typical spring weather.
New spaceweather is possible today and quakes may continue.
The mild undersea eruption at Tonga or Kermadecs has ended.
Tongan volcano Lateiki is most likely. News may filter through in the next days but often with small undersea eruptions in remote areas there are no ship or satellite sightings to confirm activity.
White Island is hot and slowly getting hotter.
No news from local vulcanologists for several days.
An eruption seems possible in this period or a following forecast period.
The forecast period is extended to 2 December.
Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.

Update. 3 December 12.00pm
1 December.
50km North of White Island 3.9 11.06pm
The forecast period for quakes has probably ended.
Spaceweather has faded away and below the quake driving threshold.
Local quakes are likely to be extremely isolated or absent.
White Island is very hot but heating has eased today and tremor high but steady.
Volcanos tend to erupt after quakes and late in a forecast period or slightly later.
Eruption risk continues today at White Island.

Summary.
22 November.
Waipukurau 3.7 12.18am
South of Kermadecs 5.1 10.21pm
24 November.
10 km NE White Island 5.9 5.34am 115km depth.
26 November.
Te Kaha 3.9 9.18am
North of Milford Sound 3.7 5.23pm
27 November.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 8.23pm
30 November.
Mahia 4.0 6.30am
1 December.
Methven 4.4 3.56am
50km North of White Island 3.9 11.06pm
5 December.
Motiti Island 4.6 1.53am
This forecast had some good location success and justified Bay of Plenty as a major hotspot.
Fiordland was ominously quiet during the period.
White Island never erupted during the period but is steadily heating according to vulcanologists monitoring the volcano.
A small Kermadecs or Tonga undersea eruption or degassing occurred during the period but as is often the case in remote locations, no ship, plane or satellite sightings.
White Island heated slowly during the 2013 eruption series and conditions seem similar in 2019.
The volcano may erupt in following forecast periods.
An eruption further north at the Kermadec Islands is also more likely during this time.
Spaceweather was typically fluctuating and mild during the period and a challenge to the forecasters.
The period seemed to be ending and then more unforecasted mild spaceweather arrived on 1 December.
The difficulty of fixing the end of the forecast period was highlighted on 5 December with the very late Motiti Island 4.6.
A brief mild quake period is possible 8-9 December.

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