Pacific Summary. 1 December 2019 - 6 December 2019
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Banda Sea, Timor, Flores, Bali, Ceram Sea, Molucca Sea, Okinawa, Northern Marianas Islands, Southeast Japan, Central Kuril Islands, Atacama, Eastern Himalyas, Western Himalayas. Volcanic activity may increase. Sakurajima, Kirishima, Kliuchevskoi, Shishaldin. The period is likely to be extended for several days. Update. 23 November 12.30pm 22 November. Eruption Sakurajima. Pacific quakes are quiet. Solar conditions have arrived on cue but not strong enough to drive quakes. A quake or eruption buildup is underway. Moderate spaceweather conditions are likely to continue for several days. Isolated Mag 6 Pacific quakes are possible 23-24 November. Kermadec Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 24 November 2.15pm 24 November. Offshore Northern Papua 6.1 1.11am New Zealand/White Island 5.9 5.34am Andreanof Islands 6.2 1.54pm Pacific quakes have sprung to life following three days of steady solar buildup. The Papua 6.1 is near but not in Indonesia risk location. The 115km deep White Island 5.9 could be a precursor for more New Zealand quakes or an eruption at the Bay of Plenty volcano after 28 November. Solar conditions are steady today and likely to continue until a new peak 28 November. Isolated Pacific quakes are likely to continue next three days with the ongoing spaceweather. Pacific eruptions may pickup later in the period. Northern Tonga, South of Valdivia are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 25 November 11.30pm Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet. Mild spaceweather is steady and likely to continue until 28 November when conditions may pick up. Quakes are in a buildup phase and likely to be isolated until 28 November when a new quake peak arrives. Southern Vanuatu, South of Kermadec Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 28 November 12.00am 26 November. Albania 6.4 3.54pm 27 November. Offshore Crete 6.0 8.23pm Eruption Karangetang Pacific quakes are quiet. Mediterranean quakes on the other hand are going off. No damage from the Crete 6.0 but many lives lost from the Albania 6.4 as buildings crumpled. Molucca Sea volcano Karangetang is in eruption and giving some substance to East Indonesia as risk location. A late burst of spaceweather may arrive 28 November before conditions fade away and the forecast period ends. Pacific quakes and eruptions may increase 28 November. New Britain is added to Mag 6 risk locations. SW Pacific is higher risk. Update. 29 November 11.00pm Pacific and Mediterranean quakes are quiet. An undersea eruption is probably underway at Tongan volcano Lateiki or another Tonga or Kermadec volcano. Bay of Plenty volcano White Island is still heating and may go into eruption in the next days or during a following forecast period. Volcanic activity usually tends to follow quakes in most forecast periods. The forecasted mild late spaceweather burst has arrived with brief auroral periods but hasn't driven any quake action so far. The forecast period is extended to 30 November and likely to end soon. Pacific quakes are likely to be isolated. The period may become volcanic. Update. 1 December 3.00pm 30 November. Guatemala 5.6 8.44pm 1 December. Kermadec Islands 5.5 8.52am Eruption Shishaldin. Pacific quakes are under Mag 6. Shishaldin is in eruption for the entire period. The eruption was stronger 26 November. Spaceweather is fluctuating and challenging the forecasters. Conditions have slowly picked up from the 28 November spaceweather burst and running just on the threshold of driving quakes and eruptions. The forecast period is extended to 2 December. Another mild spaceweather burst is possible today with auroras. Isolated Pacific quakes are possible. Southwest Pacific, Atacama are higher risk locations. Update. 3 December 12.30pm 1 December. Eruption Etna 2 December. Andreanof Islands 6.0 6.01pm The forecast period has probably ended. Spaceweather is fading away today. A late volcanic eruption is possible....eruptions tend to follow quakes. Mediterranean has very unusually been more active than the Pacific during the period...two big quakes and an eruption. A full summary will be posted later. Summary. 22 November. Eruption Sakurajima. 24 November. Offshore Northern Papua 6.1 1.11am New Zealand/White Island 5.9 5.34am Andreanof Islands 6.2 1.54pm 26 November. Albania 6.4 3.54pm 27 November. Offshore Crete 6.0 8.23pm Eruption Karangetang 30 November. Guatemala 5.6 8.44pm 1 December. Kermadec Islands 5.5 8.52am Eruption Shishaldin. 2 December. Andreanof Islands 6.0 6.01pm 3 December. Offshore Northern Atacama 6.0 5 December. Vanuatu/NE Tanna 5.9 9.10am Solar conditions arrived on cue. Pacific quakes responded on 24 November, including White Island 5.9. Very rare double Mediterranean 6.4, 6.0 quakes and Etna eruption centered the action away from the Pacific during the period. Pacific quakes never made it to high magnitude or frequency but kept steadily coming as spaceweather conditions lingered for several days. Solar Minimum spaceweather is typically weak and 2019 is the weakest in a century according to NASA scientists and others. Quake periods are also tending weaker in 2019 with few Mag 7 Pacific quakes and major hurricanes this year, despite the well publicised Japanese typhoon at the Rugby World Cup. Late quakes at Atacama and Vanuatu were outside the forecast period but good location success. A brief mild quake period is possible 8-9 December. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
