Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 9 December 2019 - 17 December 2019

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, Northwest of Auckland Island, Banda Sea, North Molucca Sea, Southern Peru, Atacama, Crete.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Etna, Shishaldin.
Solar conditions are very mild and likely to last one day.
Forecast confidence = low.

Summary.
13 December.
Eruption Shishaldin
15 December.
Philippines/Mindanao 6.8 7.11pm
Very mild solar conditions arrived on cue.
Quakes and eruptions were correspondingly mild in response despite the drama unfolding at White Island.
The White Island eruption was a mere little puff by volcano standards.
The Mindanao 6.8 was the fourth Mag 6 quake in this area in just a couple of months.
Every big Mindanao quake has had the forecasters thinking another one won't happen...
The North Molucca Sea risk location was close but not the exact risk location and timing was far too late to call the quake a successful forecast.
Shishaldin has been hot or in eruption for several weeks and an obvious forecast pick for ongoing activity.
A much stronger forecast period begins 18 December and will likely feature New Zealand.