Aotearoa Summary. 18 December 2019 - 20 December 2019
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Milford Sound, Murchison, Kaikoura/Mt Fyffe, Cape Campbell, Lower Awatere Valley, Southern Wairarapa, Wairoa, Mahia, East Cape. Ash or low level lava eruption possible at White Island later in the period. The period is likely to be extended. Update. 19 December 2.00am 18 December. Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.4 5.14am Moderate spaceweather has arrived very late on 18 December, slightly later than forecasted. Offshore Bay of Plenty quakes and further north have been busy today. Vulcanologists report that most of their monitoring equipment is functioning at White Island and the volcano is fairly quiet. White Island is very unstable and the arrival of spaceweather is likely to begin another eruptive sequence during the period. Murupara, Kaimanawa Ranges are added to Mag 4 risk locations. The forecast period is extended to 20 December. Summary. 18 December. Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.4 5.14am 20 December. Southern Kaimanawa Ranges/Ngamatea 3.7 6.27pm South of Wanganui 3.8 11.14pm This forecast had many mistakes and few good points. Mild spaceweather faded on 20 December... an update should have been posted ending the forecast period. The addition of Kaimanawa Ranges to risk locations was justified with the biggest quakes of the period in the North Island soon following. White Island deflated with the fading spaceweather. The White Island eruption has ended but the tragedy continues. 19 people have died, including two missing. More burnt victims are still fighting for their lives. Unforecasted mild spaceweather arrived 25 December with a big quake sequence near Vancouver Island. More action may follow at Vancouver Island, Atacama and possibly California. New Zealand quakes are quiet and hopefully will stay that way. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
