Aotearoa Summary. 9 January 2020 - 17 January 2020
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Whakatane, Opotiki, Northern Ureweras, Taupo, Lake Taupo, Kaimanawa Ranges, South of Gisborne, Wairoa, Hastings, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, Cape Campbell, North of D'Urville Island, St Arnaud, Paringa. Fiordland Mag 5 confidence=low. Constant degassing and low level steam eruptions may increase at White Island to minor ash eruption later in the period. Update. 11 January 10.00am Local quakes are quiet. Mild spaceweather hasn't been strong enough during the period to drive quakes. Spaceweather is still present and may drive a late quake although forecast confidence is low. Solstice spaceweather is typically weak as the Earth goes off the ecliptic plane of the Sun for a while as it wobbles along on its orbit. Conditions at White Island are quiet. The volcano is slightly pulsing and showing some minor eruption signature... probably degassing and steam. No news from the vulcanologists for four days. The forecast is extended to 11 January and likely to end soon. Mag 5 confidence = low. Update. 14 January 4.00pm 13 January. Northeast of East Cape 4.7 7.49pm The strong Pacific volcanic period hasn't come to New Zealand. Quakes have been mostly quiet during the period. White Island is quiet, the eruption has ended. New spaceweather is due tonight and quakes will increase. The forecast period is extended to 15 January. East Coast North Island is higher risk. Update. 16 January 1.00pm 16 January. Northeast of East Cape 4.8 12.14pm White Island Mag 2-3 swarm. Forecast conditions have got tricky. Bay of Plenty continues to be the hotspot with moderate but isolated East Cape quakes and a substantial quake swarm about 10km southwest of White Island. The quakes are shallow and an eruption at White Island still seems very unlikely. Spaceweather remains quiet. The forecasted spaceweather for 15 January didn't arrive. The spaceweather may arrive today, later than expected but conditions look quiet at the moment. Isolated Bay of Plenty or East Cape Mag 4 quakes are possible on 16 January. Update. 17 January 12.00am 16 January. 10km SW White Island 3.9 6.10pm + swarm. NW Arm Te Anau 3.9 8.51pm Very mild spaceweather arrived about the time of the last posting and later than originally forecasted. Moderate quakes have followed, including a decent swarm up to Mag 3.9 about 10km southwest of White Island. Spaceweather seems likely to fade away quickly but an isolated late quake is possible on 17 January. Bay of Plenty, Volcanic Plateau are higher risk. White Island signal is noisy with the quake swarm and hard to read. A minor steam eruption or Mag 4 quake seems possible at White Island on 17 January. Summary. 13 January. Northeast of East Cape 4.7 7.49pm 16 January. Northeast of East Cape 4.8 12.14pm 10km SW White Island 3.9 6.10pm + swarm. NW Arm Te Anau 3.9 8.51pm 17 January. North of Kapiti Island 4.2 12.31am This forecast had some successes. Mild spaceweather arrived on cue but was too weak to drive quakes and Mag 5 risk wasn't justified. White Island received a quake swarm up to Mag 3.9. The shallow quake series wasn't an eruption precursor although interfered with data making it noisy and hard to read. The White Island swarm is normal for a heavily fractured volcanic zone where multiple small quakes occur through the fractured zone instead of a single bigger quake. Regardless, White Island was settling during the period and no more eruptions have occurred. Vulcanologists have observed three new lava intrusions at the crater which came with the 9 December eruption. Quakes went quiet on 17 January until the 21 January 6.34am South of Kirwee 4.0 which got a lot of people out of bed in Canterbury. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
