Aotearoa Summary. 1 February 2020 - 6 February 2020
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Northeast of East Cape, East Cape. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taupo, Taumarunui, Mahia, Wairoa, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannivirke, Eketahuna, South of Wanganui, North of Kapiti, North of D"Urville Island, Wellington, Seddon, Clarence, Kaikoura, Te Anau, Puysegur Point. Mild but persistent solar wind may drive isolated quakes in the next day. Volcanos quiet. Equatorial Pacific quakes are already active below Mag 6 and may increase. Pacific eruptions may increase, including La Cumbre. A Pacific forecast may be posted tonight. Update. 1 February 1.00pm 1 February. Northern Kermadecs 5.7 2.53am Local quakes were below Mag 4 on 31 January. Spaceweather was mild but steady. A buildup may be underway. Spaceweather is expected to increase about now, extending the buildup period. The forecast period is extended to 1 February. Masterton, Castlepoint are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Biggest Pacific quake during the period is the Northern Kermadecs/Louisville 5.7, making close to home Kermadecs/South of Kermadecs a Mag 6 risk location. White Island and other local volcanos are quiet. Sadly, the 21st victim of the 9 December White Island eruption died and a few more still in hospital. Update. 2 February 11.30pm 1 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.0 8.16am Northeast of East Cape 4.3 8.25pm 2 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.5 2.42pm New spaceweather arrived 1 February but was weaker than forecasted. Pacific quakes have remained below Mag 6. Local quakes are also subdued, biggest quakes were in Mag 5 risk location Northeast of East Cape. Spaceweather is subsiding tonight but may remain at the quake threshold on 3 February. An isolated late quake is possible on 3 February. Confidence = low. Update. 3 February 10.00am 3 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.6 9.07am A long moderate quake sequence is unfolding along with steady but mild spaceweather. Despite no onshore local Mag 4 quakes during the period, a slow quake buildup may still be underway. The forecast period is extended to 3 February. Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Quakes, if any, are likely to be isolated. No Pacific forecast is offered for the period. Todays La Cumbre 4.6 indicates an eruption may be underway or about to begin at the remote Galapagos volcano. Update. 5 February 12.00am 4 February. Culverden 3.9 3.11am East of Motiti Island 5.5 10.47pm The forecast period has become stretched out with persistent mild spaceweather creating slow quake buildup conditions. The forecast outlook for isolated quakes and possible higher magnitude finally gains some justification today. Spaceweather continues tonight and likely to continue until a new burst arrives late on 6 February. A new quake buildup may already be underway, following the Motiti Island 5.5 release. The 250km deep Motiti Island 5.5 may be a precursor for a shallow quake. The forecast period is extended to 5 February. Quakes are likely to be isolated, Mag 5 is possible. Risk locations are unchanged. Higher risk locations are Central North Island, Taranaki Bight, Southern Hawkes Bay. A new map is likely to be posted ahead of the late 6 February solar pickup. A Pacific forecast isn't offered due to lack of resources just now. Pacific quakes are quiet, volcanos are active. Eruptions at Kuchinoerabujima, Kliuchevskoi, Saunders Island and Mediterranean volcanos Etna and Stromboli. No news for La Cumbre. Summary. 1 February. Northern Kermadecs 5.7 2.53am Northeast of East Cape 4.0 8.16am Northeast of East Cape 4.3 8.25pm 2 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.5 2.42pm 3 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.6 9.07am 4 February. Culverden 3.9 3.11am East of Motiti Island 5.5 10.47pm 5 February. Northeast of East Cape 4.7 2.02am South of Kermadecs 5.0 2.19am South of Kermadecs 5.0 7.49pm 6 February. Southwest of Te Kaha 3.8 1.30am Difficult forecast conditions due to sluggish but persistent solar wind during the period made for some timing difficulties. Steady Mag 4 quakes northeast of East Cape persisted through the period, indicating pressure and in the Bay of Plenty. Note. This Service no longer records Mag 4 quakes in South of Kermadecs locations...there are too many and data is unreliable in magnitude and location. The Motiti Island 5.5 was widely felt as a swaying quake due to the 270 km depth and gave the forecast map some justification despite not being in a risk location. New spaceweather has arrived as this summary is posted and a new forecast for 7 February processed. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
