Aotearoa Summary. 7 February 2020 - 15 February 2020
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Taupo, Urewera, Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, West of Masterton, South of Wanganui, South of Taranaki, North of D'Urville Island, Kahurangi, Cascade River, Pyke River, Te Anau, Doubtful Sound, Snares Islands. Volcanos quiet. Solar quake driving conditions are here as this forecast is posted. Quakes seem likely to stay low frequency but high magnitude is possible in Central North Island, Bay of Plenty and Southern Hawkes Bay. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Update. 10 February 12.00am 7 February. West of Auckland Island 5.0 9.20pm 8 February. East of Farewell Spit 4.0 6.11pm Doubtful Sound 4.0 10.13pm 9 February. South of Kermadecs 5.0 1.49am South of Kermadecs 5.2 9.50am Moderate spaceweather has driven an active quake period. The West of Auckland Island 5.0 gave some justification to Mag 6 risk at rarely forecasted Macquarie Island. Geonet recorded Mag 5.5 in a different location and depth to USGS and EMSC. Geonet offshore data is unreliable due to their poorly configured seismograph array. Moderate Fiordland activity followed the Auckland Island quake. The East of Farewell Spit 4.0 frustratingly fell between two risk locations but gave some justification. Moderate South of Kermadecs quakes kept the spell busy. Note. This Service no longer records South of Kerms Mag 4 quakes. Spaceweather is fading tonight and tricky, right on the quake driving threshold. Southwest Pacific has become active tonight and moderate quakes north and south of New Zealand during the period. The forecast period is extended to 10 February. Quakes are more likely near the Equator at New Britain but New Zealand could receive a late isolated quake, including Mag 5. Summary. 7 February. West of Auckland Island 5.0 9.20pm 8 February. East of Farewell Spit 4.0 6.11pm Doubtful Sound 4.0 10.13pm 9 February. South of Kermadecs 5.0 1.49am South of Kermadecs 5.2 9.50am 10 February. Doubtful Sound 3.7 7.12am 14 February. Cape Campbell 4.4 4.57am 15 February. Northwest of Snares Islands 4.2 6.58am This forecast had more going for it than the corresponding Pacific Forecast shambles. Moderate Mag 5 quakes north and south of New Zealand came with mild spaceweather. Action has shifted south during the period and the forecast had some success in Fiordland and further south as well as Taranaki Bight. The Cape Campbell 4.4 came after the forecast was dropped on 10 February. Typically weak solstice spaceweather is likely to increase in March when Earth crosses the Solar Ecliptic and auroras increase. The March-April 2019 Gisborne slow slip quake sequence was a precursor for further quakes but despite steady Mag 5 quakes and volcanic unrest at White Island the bigger quake expected from such a big slow slip sequence hasn't arrived. Slowing weather and quake patterns as solar activity weakens could mean quakes following the slow slip are delayed. A previous 2010 Gisborne slow slip event took six months to release the Darfield 7.0 and spaceweather is slower now than then. Increasing spaceweather strength in March could be a trigger for a quake response to the 2019 Gisborne slow slip sequence. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
