Pacific Summary. 7 February 2020 - 15 February 2020
Volcanic activity may increase. Nishinoshima, Kuchinoerabujima, Mayon, La Cumbre. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Update. 9 February 11.30pm 7 February. South of Mindanao 6.0 2.40am West of Auckland Island 5.0 9.20pm USGS, EMSC Eruption Kuchinoerabujima 8 February. Eruption Nishinoshima 9 February. South Sandwich Islands/Bristol Island 6.1 3.32am New Britain 6.2 7.04pm The forecast period has brought a flurry of quakes but nothing major and little forecast location success from a low number of risk locations. Best success was the West of Auckland Island 5.0, giving some justification to the rarely forecasted Macquarie Island. Geonet gave Mag 5.5 for the quake, USGS and EMSC recorded Mag 5.0 and different depth and location. Geonet offshore data is unreliable due to their poorly configured seismograph array. Eruptions at Offshore Japan volcanos Kuchinoerabujima and Nishinoshima are ongoing and easy forecast picks. Spaceweather is fading today and just on the quake threshold, challenging the forecasters with typical Solar Minimum patchy conditions. A late isolated Pacific quake or eruption is possible on 10 February. Bismarck Sea is higher risk for Mag 6/7. New spaceweather is due late 11 February but may be weak and unable to drive big quakes. Summary. 7 February. South of Mindanao 6.0 2.40am West of Auckland Island 5.0 9.20pm USGS, EMSC Eruption Kuchinoerabujima 8 February. Eruption Nishinoshima 9 February. South Sandwich Islands/Bristol Island 6.1 3.32am New Britain 6.2 7.04pm 10 February. Eruption Piton de la Fournaise 13 February. Kuril Islands 6.9 11.33pm Moderate spaceweather arrived on cue with following quakes but the forecast had many mistakes and location success was very limited. The only good point was the West of Auckland Island 5.0 which gave some justification to the rarely forecasted Macquarie Island. The Kuril Island 6.9 was 144km deep in a remote location and came after the forecast was dropped and never made news despite high magnitude. Piton de la Fournaise was very inflated at the previous forecast period 9 January but has taken another burst of spaceweather to drive an eruption. The absence of a forecast for an eruption at the Indian Ocean volcano during this period was a big mistake. Weakly defined spaceweather during Solar Minimum 2020 is challenging to forecasts but typically increases in March as Earth aligns with the Solar Ecliptic Plane so forecast accuracy may increase as aurora season arrives. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
