Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 13 September 2014 - 14 September 2014

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 5+ risk areas are East Cape. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Bay of Plenty, Taranaki Bight, North Wairarapa, North Canterbury, Christchurch, Fiordland. A strong global shock of Magnitude 7+ is possible very early in the period. Higher risk areas are equatorial. Mexico, Indonesia, Solomon Islands are higher risk. Location confidence =low. The forecast period may be extended. Volcanic activity may increase. Bardarbunga is high risk for a major eruption. NZ volcanoes quiet. More news on our Facebook link. Summary. 13 Sept. Fiordland 4.6, Iceland 4.6, 5.0, Bay of Plenty Mag 3+ swarm. 14 Sept. Fiordland 4.6, North of East Cape 4.2. 15 Sept. Iceland 4.7, 5.3. This turned out to be a tricky forecast. A very strong shock arrived exactly on cue early 13 Sept. generating aurorae and elevated quake activity but lacked one critical driving property so the big global quake and eruption luckily never came. Local quake activity jumped during the period as expected. Bardarbunga remained in eruption