Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 19 February 2020 - 27 February 2020

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Bougainville, Eastern New Britain, Northern Papua New Guinea, South of Philippines, Banda Sea, Timor, Eastern Java, Sunda Strait, Gulf of California, Valparaiso, Bristol Island.
Volcanic activity may increase later in the period.
Semisopochnoi, Thorbjorn.
Isolated quakes early in the period may build to a peak 22 February.

Update. 20 February 12.00am
Spaceweather has arrived on cue with spectacular auroras.
Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet and likely in a buildup phase.
Quakes may remain isolated on 20 February as the buildup phase continues.
There is some signal for a strong Pacific push.
Tonga, Kuril Islands, Hindu Kush are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 21 February 12.00am
20 February.
South of Philippines 5.4 10.54pm
Spaceweather continues on 20 February in a buildup phase.
Biggest Pacific quake just south of Philippines in a risk location.
More action is possible at this location during the period.
The quake period may go into a release phase late on 21 February.
Southern Marianas Trench, New Britain are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low.
Volcanos are quiet but may become active soon.
Aleutian Islands volcano Semisopochnoi is quaking but no eruption.

Update. 23 February 3.30pm
Pacific quakes are under Mag 6.
Iceland seismologists report a quake swarm under Thorbjorn but can't say if an eruption is imminent.
No news for Semisopochnoi today...its Sunday.
Steady slow spaceweather persists on 23 February.
A low level electron storm continues today and more solar protons are due to arrive late 24 February.
A quake or eruption buildup may still be underway and very slow to respond as is increasingly apparent during slow Solar Minimum spaceweather periods.
The forecast period is extended to 24 February.
North of Valparaiso is added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 27 February 9.00am
24 February.
Eastern Turkey 6.0 5.00am
26 February.
South Banda Sea 6.0 8.33pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Etna.
Mild spaceweather continues on 27 February.
Quakes have been mild in response, well spaced in time and location.
Excellent location success at Banda Sea 6.0 from a very low number of risk locations.
The forecast period is extended to 27 February.
Chile is higher risk.
Pacific Mag 7 is possible. Confidence=low.

Summary.
20 February.
South of Philippines 5.4 10.54pm
24 February.
Eastern Turkey 6.0 5.00am
26 February.
South Banda Sea 6.0 8.33pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Etna.
The period was relatively quiet, typical of Solar Minimum at Equinox.
Quakes barely made it to Mag 6 although location success was very good.