Aotearoa Summary. 1 March 2020 - 4 March 2020

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Aotearoa Summary. 29 February 2020 - 4 March 2020.

Magnitude 5 risk locations are Northeast of East Cape, East Cape, Gisborne.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay, Napier, Hastings, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taupo, Taumarunui, Ruapehu, Cape Campbell, Ward, Methven, Doubtful Sound, Te Anau, George Sound.
White Island is at high tremor and an ash or lava eruption possible.
The forecast period is likely to build to a peak on 3 March.

Update. 1 March 11.00pm
29 February.
West of Snares Islands 4.2 10.08am
White Island steam plume.
Steady spaceweather continues through the period.
Local quakes are subdued but may become more active as the period peaks on 3-4 March.
Geonet vulcanologists have acknowledged White Island has a strong steam plume but say it isn't unusual and looks spectacular because of local weather conditions.
The volcano is in a sustained period of low frequency tremor and further pluming must be happening although no news from the vulcanologists today.
Spaceweather may ease slightly on 2 March ahead of a pickup 3-4 March.
Quakes may remain subdued on 2 March in response to the milder spaceweather.
Olivine Ranges are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
White Island is set to continue pluming and may go into full eruption 3-4 March or in a following forecast period on 22 March.

Update. 4 March 12.00am
3 March.
Northeast of East Cape 4.6 4.40pm
Spaceweather has eased 2-3 March as the period turns heavily volcanic around the Pacific and quakes stay quiet.
The heating event at White Island has ended with the fading spaceweather.
Geonet vulcanologists have announced that since the 22-23 February Ruapehu crater quake swarm the crater lake heated from 24C to 30C and turbulence is discolouring the lake with the degassing.
Ruapehu is unlikely to erupt unless the temperature rises to at least 42C although eruptions have occurred from a cold lake in the past.
White Island may start pluming again with expected increase in spaceweather 4 March.
Heating at Ruapehu seems likely to continue in the next days although the eruption temperature is more likely in a following forecast period.
The vulcanologists don't make detailed temperature, gas levels and other observations publicly available but hopefully will make more announcements soon.
Their recent advice is that nothing out of the ordinary is going on at White Island or Ruapehu and have always maintained that volcanos aren't linked thus failing at the first step to making a forecast.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Summary.
29 February.
West of Snares Islands 4.2 10.08am
White Island steam plume.
3 March.
Northeast of East Cape 4.6 4.40pm
4 March.
100km North of White Island 4.0 3.06am
North of Kapiti Island 4.0 5.58pm
The period never produced much quake action as the Pacific turned heavily volcanic.
When quakes are quiet, volcanos are hot and vice versa is a good rule of thumb that mostly is true.
White Island was very hot during the period with a strong steam plume early on.
Tremor eased at White Island 4 March as the solar magnetic connection weakened despite moderate solar wind conditions.
Magnets will attract each other but turn one magnet around and they repel.
This works also for the solar-geomagnetic connection....sometimes it doesn't connect because solar protons are pointing and spinning the wrong way.
Spaceweather reconnected on 7 March and tremor at White Island immediately picked up.
The volcano is probably pluming again but no announcements yet from the vulcanologists (or locals on social media).
Ruapehu Mag 4 risk gained some justification when vulcanologists announced that the volcano is heating up.
The crater lake went from a cool 26C during the 22-23 February quake swarm to 30C on 29 February.
Low frequency tremor at the volcano continued through the period so the crater lake is still heating but needs to reach at least 42C before an eruption becomes likely.
The vulcanologists don't release temperature or gas data to the public but they will probably make another announcement when the temperature gets above 40C.
Quake swarms at Waiouru combined with generally heightened quake activity on the Volcanic Plateau, pluming White Island and heating Ruapehu seem likely to continue next few days as fluctuating mild spaceweather keeps rolling in.
The same spaceweather conditions drove the early 2013 White Island eruption series.
Local volcanos are hot.


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