Pacific Summary. 16 March 2020 - 29 March 2020

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Fiji, Tonga, South of Vanuatu, Efate, New Britain, Northern Java, Okinawa, Southern Mexico, Atacama, Western Himalayas.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kadovar, Merapi, Semeru, Kliuchevskoi, Etna.
The period is likely to be extended for several days.

Update. 18 March 10.00pm
Tonga/Hihifo 6.1 5.06am
Vanuatu/Sola 6.1 4.13pm
Quakes were below Mag 6 during the period until today.
Good location success from a forecast map weighted to SW Pacific.
Sola not quite at risk location Efate but choosing individual islands is ambitious forecasting.
Volcanos are hot but no new eruptions.
Spaceweather has been only mild during the period but due to increase again from midday 19 March.
Northern Honshu, Northern Kuril Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Semisopochnoi is added to volcanos.
Southwest Pacific remains a hotspot on 19 March.

Update. 22 March 12.00am
19 March.
USA/Salt Lake City 5.7 2.09am
South of Bali 6.3 6.55am
Eruption Kliuchevskoi
20 March.
Central Himalayas/Tibet 5.7 2.33pm
Eruption Manam
Quakes have been mostly in the upper Mag 5 range during the period with some location success.
USA has become very active.
The Salt Lake City 5.7 apparently caused no damage but had locals praying.
Northern California 5.2 was felt as far south as San Francisco and is a possible new risk location as spaceweather continues.
No eruption at Bismarck Sea volcano Kadovar but nearby Manam is in eruption.
Southwest Pacific remains a hotspot with Kermadecs action right down into New Zealand during the period.
Persistent low level spaceweather during the period is set to last another day or two at least.
The forecast period is extended to 22 March.
New Zealand, Northern California are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 23 March 11.30pm
East Pacific Rise 6.1 11.38am
Pacific quakes and eruptions have eased.
Spaceweather has eased last two days although still above quake driving threshold.
Spaceweather is likely to stay steady 24 March, increasing again on 25 March.
Quakes may recede back towards the Equator.
Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Solomon Sea, Eastern Papua New Guinea are higher risk locations.
Central Peru is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Northern California is very active and remains Mag 6 risk.
Bismarck Sea volcanos Manam and Kadovar are higher eruption risk.
New Zealand Mag 6 risk remains but low confidence... quakes seem more likely further north.

Update. 27 March 12.30am
25 March.
Offshore Northern Kuril Islands 7.5 3.49pm
Eruption Shiveluch, Suwansoejima, Asosan, Sakurajima, Soputan, Dukono, Krakatau, Merapi, Yasur, Pacaya.
The period has sprung to life with a rare Mag 7 quake and many small or moderate eruptions.
Mag 7 was common 2013-2018 during Solar Maximum with several every month.
Solar Minimum 2020 has brought only one big quake since the 29 January Offshore Jamaica 7.7.
Weather has followed the same trend as the Sun cools.
Pacific typhoons are only a quarter of their historical levels in 2019-2020 as the tropical airmass cools in response to the cooling sun.
The big quake and volcanic period is matched by a jetstream shift, bringing snow to the Southern Alps and breaking the drought in the North Island as the short intense summer ends early.
A major period of vulcanism may evolve in following forecast periods.
New spaceweather is due 27 March but may be mild.
Eruptions which typically follow quakes in forecast periods may increase on 27 March.
All the listed volcanos are higher risk.
Higher risk quake locations may be shifting to the Eastern Pacific.
Peru/Lima, Southern Ecuador, Northern California are higher risk.
New Zealand volcanos may be cooling and local Mag 6 risk decreasing.

Summary.
18 March.
Tonga/Hihifo 6.1 5.06am
Vanuatu/Sola 6.1 4.13pm
19 March.
USA/Salt Lake City 5.7 2.09am
South of Bali 6.3 6.55am
Eruption Kliuchevskoi
20 March.
Central Himalayas/Tibet 5.7 2.33pm
Eruption Manam
23 March.
East Pacific Rise 6.1 11.38am
25 March.
Offshore Northern Kuril Islands 7.5 3.49pm
Eruption Shiveluch, Suwansoejima, Asosan, Sakurajima, Soputan, Dukono, Krakatau, Merapi, Yasur, Pacaya.
27 March.
Southern Mindanao 6.1 4.38am
29 March.
Efate/Vanuatu 5.9 6.48am
This forecast had many good location successes, including the Kuril Islands 7.5, Efate 5.9 and Tibet 5.7.
The period became heavily volcanic near the end and blended into the following forecast period, making for a very long and typically Solar Minimum period.
March is aurora and earthquake season as Earth crosses the Solar Ecliptic Plane and 2020 has proven no exception, despite sluggish coronal hole solar windstreams driving low solar activity.

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