Aotearoa Summary. 1 April 2020 - 8 April 2020

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Aotearoa Summary. 30 March 2020 - 8 April 2020.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, George Sound, Conway River, Clarence, Tapuaenuku, Ward, Cape Campbell, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Pyke River, Cascade River, Upper Rakaia, Turakirae Head, Southern Wairarapa, Masterton, North of Kapiti, Tolaga Bay, Tokomaru Bay, Hikurangi.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand.
Ruapehu may be added later in the period.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 31 March 2.00pm
Mild spaceweather continues as a very long quake period unfolds.
Spaceweather has picked up today in accordance with the 27 March outlook and is strong as this update is posted.
Local quakes are very busy but low magnitude.
Wairarapa location Pongaroa is swarming and higher risk for a bigger quake.
The forecast period is extended to 1 April.

Update. 2 April 4.00pm
2 April.
Northeast of East Cape 3.9 9.22am
Local quakes are busy but at low magnitude.
Spaceweather conditions have become weak and fluctuating as the end of a very long Solar Minimum quake period approaches.
Spaceweather has picked up again this afternoon, following two quieter than expected days of solar wind.
Conditions are only moderate and following quakes are likely to be isolated although high magnitude remains possible.
Fluctuating conditions are likely 3 April with minor peaks.
Kermadec Islands are raised to Mag 6 risk so New Zealand also remains Mag 6 risk.
Wairarapa, East Cape are higher risk.
Ruapehu and White Island are probably cooling.
Low frequency tremor is reducing at both volcanos.
No announcements from the vulcanologists that Ruapehu Crater Lake is heating.

Summary.
2 April.
Northeast of East Cape 3.9 9.22am
4 April.
New Brighton 3.2 9.52am
5 April.
Northeast of East Cape 4.0 10.19pm
7 April.
Northern Ruahine Range 4.5 7.38pm
This forecast was a continuation of the earlier 16-29 March Aotearoa Forecast.
Spaceweather was only mild during the period and faded away without any of the major action that occurred in the earlier 16-29 March period.
Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu followed the strong Pacific trend early in the period but as spaceweather weakened the volcano began to cool and is no longer an eruption risk.
Regardless, New Zealand remained very busy at low magnitude during the period.
Seismologists may announce a Lower North Island slow slip event is underway given the quake frequency.
A new quake period begins late 8 March and lunar modulation is possible with a supermoon (perigee and full moon).



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