Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 19 April 2020 - 25 April 2020

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Japan was a quake and volcano hotspot during the period with two big quakes and several Kyushu volcanos going off.
Spaceweather arrived a day earlier than expected, driving the South of Japan/Bonin Islands 6.6...only half an hour after the Fiordland 5.0.
Sadly, in the same vein as the Aotearoa Forecast, the early spaceweather arrival left the forecasters emptyhanded.
A forecast for 19 April was eventually produced with some location success but very tricky fluctuating spaceweather kept the forecasters guessing.
Isolated late quakes came after spaceweather hung up and the forecast was dropped.
The SW Bougainville 6.3 was in the New Britain higher risk location given in the 22 April update.
Multiple Japanese eruptions justified Kyushu as a forecast hotspot.
Krakatau is gradually quietening following the big 11 April eruption.
18 April.
Bonin Islands 6.6 8.25pm
19 April.
Eruption Semeru, Kliuchevskoi, Etna
20 April.
Eastern Honshu 6.3 8.39am
Eruption Kuchinoerabujima, Rincon de la Vieja, Fuego.
22 April.
Eruption Suwanosejima, Sakurajima
23 April.
South of Tonga 5.5 10.31am
25 April.
Southwest of Bougainville 6.3 2.53pm

Forecast. 19 April.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Tonga/Neiafu, Makira, New Britain, Central Sumatra, Kashmir, Northern Turkey, Southern Honshu, Sierra Nevada, Southern Atacama.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kerinci, Krakatau, Merapi, Semeru, Kuchinoerabujima, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky, Shiveluch, Semisopochnoi, Reventador, Etna.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 20 April 1.00pm
18 April.
Bonin Islands 6.6 8.25pm
19 April.
Eruption Semeru, Kliuchevskoi, Etna
20 April.
Eastern Honshu 6.3 8.39am
Earlier than expected arrival of spaceweather on 18 April created the biggest quake so far.
A late forecast was posted for 19 April.
Mixed location success with Honshu 6.3, regular Eastern Honshu hotspot abandoned for less active Nagoya.
Moderate eruptions have continued but spaceweather has quickly faded and quakes and eruptions are infrequent or moderate.
Uncertainty exists for the strength of new spaceweather due late today.
Pacific action seems likely to remain mild.
Northern Vanuatu is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 22 April 12.00am
20 April.
Eruption Kuchinoerabujima, Rincon de la Vieja, Fuego.
Pacific quakes are quiet as another volcanic period unfolds.
Latin American volcanos are active for the second forecast period and making another volcano cluster.
Spaceweather is weak but briefly strong during a rare Coronal Mass Ejection related aurora last night and another weaker aurora tonight.
More spaceweather is due for several days but the forecasters are unsure of the strength.
Volcanos seem set to continue with more moderate eruptions.
Pacific quakes are likely to remain subdued.
Molucca Sea is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
New Britain is higher risk location.