Aotearoa Summary. 5 May 2020 - 6 May 2020
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Pyke River, Cascade River, Omarama, North of Mt Cook, Murchison, Tapuaenuku, Cape Campbell, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Waipukurau, East Cape, White Island. Volcanos quiet. Update. 6 May 1.00pm Local and Pacific quakes are quiet. Spaceweather has finally turned up this morning, a day later than forecasted. Regardless, spaceweather is very mild and unlikely to last. Local quakes, if any, are likely to be very isolated. Solar wind levels are now at their lowest levels since 1860 and maybe earlier as the Sun enters the deepest Solar Minimum in its 11 year cycle for a long time. The near absence of large Pacific quakes in 2020 reflects the very weak solar quake driving conditions....just 3 Mag 7 quakes in 2020. Additionally, Pacific cyclones are at a quarter of their normal number in 2019-2020 as the tropical airmass cools in response to the lack of heat from the Sun. Summary. Local quakes were quiet during the period. The 6 May outlook that quakes might be absent was justified. Very mild spaceweather was enough to drive two moderate Pacific equatorial quakes but higher latitudes were quiet. Solar conditions have bottomed out in 2020 as the Sun enters a cool period lasting years. Quakes and large tropical storms have bottomed out in response. Local quakes are likely to remain below Mag 4 for several days and remain in posted risk locations until a possible mild quake period on 11 April. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
