Aotearoa Summary. 1 June 2020 - 7 June 2020
Importantly, regular risk locations East Cape and Bay of Plenty were dropped in this forecast and no quakes came there. Internet babble forecasting the "big one" NW of Levin was just that. Local and Pacific quakes were busy during the period, matching moderate steady spaceweather conditions. Weak solar wind in 2020 as the sun goes through Solar Minimum on its 11 year cycle has made forecast timing very difficult so this forecast was a good timing success. The 29 May impulsive M1 Class solar flare is the biggest since October 2017 but not affecting Earth. The flaring sunspot is from new Solar Cycle 25 due to its high latitude and magnetic orientation and indicates that new solar activity is just around the corner. The 2013 long term outlook for "bigger quakes, spaced apart" is about to be tested in 2020. Brief interludes of flare activity could result in some bigger quakes during the 2020 spring aurora season. 2020 has seen very weak quake activity so far and quakes are likely to stay weak between brief sunspot flaring periods in 2020. Fixing the end of quake periods is the most difficult forecasting decision and this forecast worked well, the period ended on cue. Local quakes faded away on 3 June but continued for another day at the Equator with major forecast success, South of Titicaca 6.8. A new quake period is unlikely in the next week. Mag 4 quakes, if any, are likely to be in the same risk locations. 27 May. West Taranaki Bight 4.0 10.33pm EMSC Tokoroa Mag 1-2 swarm 28 May. St. Arnaud 4.5 2.43pm Northwest of Levin 3.9 8.33pm 30 May. South of Kermadecs 5.0 8.14am Northeast of Cape Campbell 4.1 10.56am Northeast of Mokau 3.8 8.44pm Northwest of Levin 4.7 10.56pm 31 May. North of New Plymouth 4.9 2.35pm 7 June. Northwest of Levin 4.2 11.45am Update. 4 June 12.30pm Local quakes are quiet and the period has probably ended in New Zealand. Late Pacific big quakes have occurred closer to the Equator where quakes are more common. Quakes during the period have mostly occurred in or around Taranaki Bight, the focus of risk locations. Update. 2 June 11.00pm Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 2 June. Spaceweather was busy with steady conditions prevailing all day and only easing tonight. A late quake may release on 3 June as spaceweather probably fades away for a few days. Rolleston is added to Mag 4 risk locations. Update. 1 June 10.30pm 30 May. South of Kermadecs 5.0 8.14am Northeast of Cape Campbell 4.1 10.56am Northeast of Mokau 3.8 8.44pm Northwest of Levin 4.7 10.56pm 31 May. North of New Plymouth 4.9 2.35pm Solar wind has increased 29-31 May, getting strong enough to produce some auroras. Local quakes have followed with some location success. Action has come in or around Taranaki Bight. Regular risk locations around East Cape were dropped as the forecast focussed on Taranaki Bight, Cook Strait. Some data was lost while offline but more mild spaceweather may arrive next day, possibly driving a late quake. The forecast period is extended to 2 June. Confidence=low. Update. 28 May 10.00pm 28 May. Northwest of Levin 3.9 8.33pm Local quakes were relatively quiet today with quiet solar quake driving conditions. Solar wind is picking up tonight. Mag 5.8 and 5.9 quakes near Tonga tonight. Kahurangi is added to Mag 4 risk locations. Taranaki Bight remains a hotspot. The forecast period is extended to 30 May. The forecast may not be updated on 29 May. Update. 28 May 9.00am 27 May. West Taranaki Bight 4.0 10.33pm EMSC Tokoroa Mag 1-2 swarm 28 May. St. Arnaud 4.5 2.43pm Action continues in Taranaki Bight and now other locations. Good timing success with quakes coming late in the day. No indication that Northwest of Levin is in a foreshock phase. Quakes there are decaying. Spaceweather has gone quiet again this morning. Stronger conditions are likely to pick up again very late 28 May and continue 29-31 May. Tokoroa, Rotorua, Taupo, Taumarunui, Kaikoura, Culverden, Haast, Te Anau, Doubtful Sound are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Forecast. 27 May 2020. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest of Levin, North of D"Urville Island, South of Taranaki, Mana, Cape Campbell, Southern Wairarapa, Dannevirke, Porangahau. Volcanos quiet. This forecast is mostly a rerun of the 20 May forecast where risk locations were focussed on Taranaki Bight and Cook Strait. Mild spaceweather may pick up late 27 May and following days. There is a lot of online talk that Northwest of Levin location is in a foreshock sequence and the big one is coming but this quake is relatively shallow and more likely in an aftershock sequence. Additional risk locations at Fiordland and Bay of Plenty may be added with the arrival of more spaceweather late 28 May and 31 May. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
