Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 1 June 2020 - 7 June 2020

Click to Enlarge

This forecast had good location and timing success during difficult Solar Minimum spaceweather conditions.
Eruptions at familiar clustered volcanos continued the increasing volcanic trend in 2020.
The 2 June addition of South of Titicaca to risk locations was justified when the Atacama 6.8 arrived.
Mag 7 is rare in 2020 so this quake was substantial for the conditions.
The Ridgecrest, California 5.5 aftershock was under Mag 6 but significant.
Western USA is very active in 2020 and quakes may be migrating to the Californian coast with large city populations.
Spaceweather faded away with the 4 June Molucca Sea 6.4 near the location of a deep Celebes Sea 4.2...deep quakes often lead to shallow quakes in nearby locations.
Pacific quakes are quiet on 7 June as this summary is posted and Mag 6 seems unlikely for several days.
29 May.
Eruption Fuego, Pacaya, Semeru, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Karymsky, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch.
31 May.
Titicaca 6.0 5.09pm
3 June.
South of Titicaca 6.8 7.35pm
South of Tonga 5.9 9.31pm
4 June.
Flores Sea 5.7 3.54am
North Celebes Sea 4.2 8.13am
Ridgecrest, California 5.5 1.32pm
East Molucca Sea 6.4 8.49pm

Update. 4 June 12.00pm
3 June.
South of Titicaca 6.8 7.35pm
South of Tonga 5.9 9.31pm
The outlook for a Pacific buildup is justified.
Late quakes have come at risk locations, giving substance to the forecast.
Spaceweather is fading today and the period has probably ended, despite some deep quakes in the Flores Sea and Celebes Sea.

Update. 2 June 11.30pm
Pacific quakes were quiet on 2 June.
Spaceweather was steady all day and a Pacific buildup may be underway.
Eruptions are likely to continue 3 June.
Late Mag 6 quakes are possible.
South of Titicaca, Colima are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Spaceweather is unlikely to last beyond 3 June.

Update. 1 June 10.30pm
29 May.
Eruption Fuego, Pacaya, Semeru, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Karymsky, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch.
31 May.
Titicaca 6.0 5.09pm
Clustered eruptions at familiar ongoing eruption hotspots continue the Pacific volcanic trend.
Strong but brief spaceweather has met forecast expectations.
The forecast period is extended to 2 June.
Some data was lost while offline so forecast confidence=low.

Forecast. 29-30 May, 2020.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Solomon Islands, New Britain, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Banda Sea, Sumatra, Northern California, Southern California.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Etna, Krakatau, Merapi, Semeru, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent.
Constant steady eruptions already underway are likely to continue.