Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 25 September 2014 - 29 September 2014

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are East Cape, Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Northern Wairarapa, Eastern Taranaki Bight. Early activity in Bay of Plenty/East Cape may spread and grow stronger near the end of the period. Volcanoes quiet. The eruption of Bardarbunga may increase on 27 Sept. Watch out also for eruptions on Mayon and Slamet. Click our Facebook link for updates. Summary. 25 Sept. East of Eketahuna 4.5, Iceland 4.8, 4.9, Solomon Islands 6.0. 26 Sept. Alaska 6.2, Iceland 4.7, 4.7. Conditions began strongly early but then fizzed out. Late weak activity on 29 Sept near White Island, Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Eketahuna came after earlier deep activity near Tonga and Central Paciific.
Volcano Summary. The second volcanic phase is now surely here. The first phase in June, Sangeang Api, Piton de la Fournaise, Kilauea. Conditions have been huge during the period across the central/west Pacific and don't look like relenting yet. Bardarbunga: Icelandic seismologists are now saying this is the biggest eruption in the last 150 years. Lava continues to pour out at a massive rate, the caldera floor is still ominously dropping. A bigger eruption seems likely. Slamet: No data available. Shiveluch: Eruption on 24 Sept. Western Pacific is where all the action is at the moment. Ontake-san: The Japanese love climbing mountains and the 27 Sept. eruption sadly cost a fair few of them their lives. Japanese seismologists are today reporting continued tremors. Mayon: Philippine authorities have wisely been evacuating the area for days after the seismologists said lava is rising high in the volcano. The seismologists have gamely predicted an eruption date of 8 October, on full moon and lunar eclipse. This Service commends them on having a crack at a date... nothing venture, nothing win.