Aotearoa Summary. 1 July 2020 - 2 July 2020
The 27 June Atiamuri 4.9 was a great forecast success, picking out a single location instead of the usual swathe of risk locations offered through Bay of Plenty and Volcanic Plateau. The Kaikoura 4.1 gave the forecast map good substance. Fiordland Mag 6 risk wasn't justified, a few aftershocks from the 25 June Offshore Milford Sound 5.9 were all that happened. Spaceweather arrived on cue but was weaker than expected and faded away quickly. The forecast was dropped on 30 June as quakes faded below Mag 4, quiet conditions continuing until 2 July. Solar wind, quakes and eruptions are likely to be subdued until 6 July at least. 27 June. Atiamuri 4.9 8.41am 28 June. Seaward Kaikouras 4.1 5.55pm 30 June. Southwest of Milford Sound 4.3 9.17am South of Kermadecs 5.0 1.28pm Update. 29 June 12.00am 28 June. Seaward Kaikouras 4.1 5.55pm Good location success during the period from a low number of risk locations has given substance to the map. Spaceweather has weakened today but timing confidence is low, the previous forecast period closed off too early. The forecast period is extended to 29 June and possibly for another 2-3 days. Local quakes are likely to become very infrequent. Fiordland remains Mag 6 risk. Update. 27 June 10.00am 27 June. Atiamuri 4.9 8.41am Fluctuating spaceweather set in about 4am and likely to stay for a day or more. Good location success at Atiamuri from a reduced range of Volcanic Plateau risk locations. Normally, a wide swathe of Volcanic Plateau risk locations from East Cape to Taumarunui is offered. Southern Fiordland remains Mag 6 risk. The forecast period is extended to 27 June. A Pacific Update will be posted later. Forecast. 26-27 June, 2020. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Offshore Doubtful Sound, Offshore Milford Sound. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Olivine Ranges, Pyke River, Haast, Otira, Kaikoura, Cape Campbell, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Hastings, Mahia, Gisborne, Tokomaru Bay, Rotorua, Tokoroa. Volcanos quiet. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
