Pacific Summary. 1 August 2020 - 2 August 2020
The 22 July Alaskan Peninsula 7.8 was the biggest quake in 2020 but not on the forecast radar. 2020 is a lean year for big quakes as expected during Solar Minimum and still below average despite a Mag 7 cluster June/July. Spaceweather arrived on cue but fluctuated and then faded earlier than expected. Apart from the Alaskan Peninsula 7.8, quakes had some correlation with the forecast. Good location success South of Fiji. The Tibet 6.3 was close to infrequently forecasted Kashmir and a possible indicator for some more Himalaya quakes. South Sandwich Islands 6.3 was in a low confidence risk location. The 2 August South of Philippines 6.4 and Bismarck Sea 6.0 gave good location success but outside the forecast period, meeting the secondary forecast parameter that quakes after a period ends are more likely in risk locations from that period. Eruptions continued at familiar hotspots, making for a busy period with both quakes and eruptions dominant. A new forecast period begins 3 August. 22 July. South of Fiji 6.0 8.56am Alaskan Peninsula 7.8 6.12pm Eruption Ebeko, Sangay, Pacaya, Fuego, Nishinoshima. 23 July. Tibet 6.3 8.07am Eruption Suwanosejima 26 July. South Sandwich Islands 6.3 12.54pm 28 July. Alaskan Peninsula 6.1 8.03pm 2 August. Southern Philippines 6.4 5.09am Bismarck Sea 6.0 7.22am Update. 25 July 1.30pm Pacific quakes are busy but below Mag 6. Mexican volcano Popocatepetl is in regular eruption but recorded a much larger eruption 23 July. Spaceweather forecasted for late 23 July has arrived late 24 July and remained steady The forecast period is extended to 26 July and likely to be extended. Inland Northern Colombia, Northeastern Honshu are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 23 July 10.00pm 23 July. Tibet 6.3 8.07am Eruption Suwanosejima The Tibet 6.3 came slightly outside the infrequently forecasted Himalaya risk location Kashmir. Spaceweather faded away shortly after the Tibet 6.3, following a fluctuating pattern. New spaceweather is due to pick up again tonight as the fluctuating pattern continues. An active period of Pacific quakes early in the period may give way to a volcanic period in the next few days. New eruptions may occur at Raung, Bulusan, Asama, Telica next few days in addition to ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos. The forecast period is extended to 24 July. Update. 22 July 11.30pm 22 July. Alaskan Peninsula 7.8 6.12pm Extending the forecast to 23 July is justified with the arrival of the biggest quake in 2020, in a lean year for Mag 7 quakes. Alaska has typically been a low confidence forecast location although this quake has given a little insight into migration patterns and useful for future forecasts. The quake is the fourth Pacific Mag 7 in a month, a quake cluster. Reykjanes Peninsula is almost Mag 4 swarming...Icelandic vulcanologists have observed rising tremor for several months and say an eruption is imminent. Fluctuating spaceweather on 22 July looks likely to continue for at least two more days. Haida Gwai is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Asama, Reykjanes Peninsula are added to volcanos. Update. 22 July 10.00am 22 July. South of Fiji 6.0 8.56am Eruption Ebeko, Sangay, Pacaya, Fuego, Nishinoshima. Spaceweather is fluctuating and there are a few forecast mistakes around this. Conditions are likely to continue fluctuating for the next couple of days and continue driving quakes and eruptions. The forecast period is extended to 23 July. Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Southwest Pacific, Atacama are higher risk. Forecast. 20 July, 2020. Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Southern Tonga, Vanuatu, South Banda Sea, Timor, Sumbawa, Southern Sumatra, Northern Sumatra, Northern Myanmar, South of Philippines, Northern Kuril Islands, Southern Colima, Titicaca, Atacama, Hindu Kush, Kashmir. Indonesia is higher risk. Volcanic activity may increase. Merapi, Raung, Semeru, Kanlaon, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Nishinoshima, Ebeko, Fuego, Santiaguito, Pacaya, Sangay, Piton de la Fournaise. Ongoing eruptions at familiar hotspots are likely to continue or increase. New eruptions may begin at several volcanos. The period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
