Pacific Summary. 3 August 2020 - 9 August 2020
Sinabung had been quiet for over a year and is now erupting daily. The deep Ambrym 6.4 could be an eruption precursor at the big volcano and the biggest Pacific quake in a mild period. The addition of infrequently forecasted Macquarie Island bore results although below Mag 6. Action then followed further north in Fiordland a few days later with the 12 August Offshore Milford Sound 5.7 after the forecast period ended. Spaceweather faded from 9 August although an electron storm was ongoing and one or two typically brief spaceweather passages as conditions fluctuated, one driving the Milford Sound 5.7. Sunspot activity has increased dramatically in August as Solar Cycle 25 begins in earnest. The low confidence outlook for a solar flare approx. 23 August is nearing. 3 August. Eruption Sangay, Ebeko, Nishinoshima, Semeru, Langila. 5 August. Eruption Suwanosejima 6 August. Vanuatu/Ambrym 6.4 12.05am 7 August. Southeast Indian Ocean/South of Madagascar 6.3 11.36am 8 August. North of Macquarie Island 4.8 6.12am North of Macquarie Island 4.7 11.34am Eruption Sinabung, Kerinci, Sakurajima Update. 9 August 10.30pm Quakes have faded. Infrequently forecasted Macquarie Island got a couple of moderate quakes. A solar electron storm is underway and spaceweather confidence is low. The period may have ended. Quakes are likely to be very infrequent 10 August. Significant new volcanic action at Sumatra has begun late the period, following the basic rule that eruptions tend to follow quakes. Long term observers will remember the big eruption series at Northern Sumatra volcano Sinabung 2013-2016. A small eruption today is matched at Southern Sumatra volcano Kerinci where a few big puffs were observed. Sumatra volcanos are hot and may join the ever growing list of ongoing eruptions in a following forecast period. Aurora season beginning very soon is going to be interesting as Solar Cycle 25 sunspots slowly begin to power up. Update. 8 August 1.230pm 6 August. Vanuatu/Ambrym 6.4 12.05am 7 August. Southeast Indian Ocean/South of Madagascar 6.3 11.36am Pacific quakes are busy with one per day making it over Mag 6. The addition of Santa Cruz Islands to risk locations may be justified as the forecast update chased quakes into Vanuatu. The 185km deep Ambrym 6.4 is under the active volcano and a possible eruption precursor for a later period. Late spaceweather, forecasted for 8 August is here but weak. Regardless, a small quake peak may occur 8 August before spaceweather fades away. Update. 5 August 11.00pm 5 August. Eruption Suwanosejima Pacific quakes were infrequent and below Mag 6 on 5 August as a very volcanic period unfolds. Japanese volcano Suwanosejima erupted and nearby Kuchinoerabujima is hot and about to erupt according to local vulcanologists. Spaceweather has faded and quakes are likely to stay infrequent, possibly until 8 August when a quake peak may mark the end of the period. Santa Cruz Islands, Macquarie Island are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 4 August 11.30pm 3 August. Eruption Sangay, Ebeko, Nishinoshima, Semeru, Langila. Spaceweather has arrived on cue and now fluctuating. Pacific quakes are quiet and eruptions at familiar hotspots ongoing. New eruption at Langila follows the 17 July Papua New Guinea 7.0 and Bismarck Sea Mag 6 action. Other volcanos in the area, Kadovar, Manam are hot and pluming. More eruptions are possible in the Bismarck Sea, New Britain region during the forecast period. Quakes are likely to be infrequent. Forecast. Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, New Georgia, Bismarck Sea, Northern Papua New Guinea, Banda Sea, South of Philippines, Mindanao, Alaska Peninsula, Offshore Vancouver Island, Offshore Oregon, Southern Colima, Coquimbo, Hindu Kush. Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos may continue. Sangay, Telica, Fuego, Pacaya, Karymsky, Suwanosejima, Nishinoshima, Semeru, Raung, Manam, Langila, Etna. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
