Aotearoa Summary. 23 August 2020 - 29 August 2020

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Bay of Plenty was a big hotspot during the period.
Geonet data in this region is unreliable and EMSC data was used instead.
Spaceweather arrived on cue and continued for several days longer than expected with a very long lasting solar electron storm keeping Bay of Plenty active.
The simple rule that quakes after a forecast period ends or is dropped are more likely in those locations has held once again with the arrival of the 29 August East of Whangamata 5.2.
New spaceweather arrived early on 29 August, a day earlier than expected, triggering a long sequence of several days East of Whangamata.
A new forecast was offered late in the day, following the 29 August 3.47am East of Whangamata 5.2 (5.6 EMSC, USGS) with the unforecasted spaceweather.

Update. 25 August 12.30pm
25 August.
200km North of East Cape 4.3 6.14am
200km North of East Cape 4.2 12.36pm EMSC
The forecast period is ending.
Spaceweather is steadily weakening and local quakes have largely remained low magnitude.
Further to yesterdays update questioning the large discrepancy between Geonet and USGS, EMSC data, Geonet have now revised the 9.26pm North of East Cape 5.1 down to Mag 4.8.
More deep action North of East Cape continues today and may drive some late action into East Cape or Bay of Plenty.

Update. 23 August 11.30pm
23 August.
200km North of East Cape 5.1 9.26pm (4.6 USGS, EMSC, GEOFON)
Spaceweather is steady on 23 August and likely to continue 24 August.
Action north of New Zealand could migrate into Bay of Plenty/East Cape risk locations during the period.
Big world seismological observatories gave Mag 4.6 for the quake.
Usually Geonet record about Mag 0.2 higher than the others.
Additionally, Geonet seismic array is unreliable for Kermadecs quakes.

Forecast.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest Arm Te Anau, North of Bligh Sound, Upper Okuru River, Culverden, Eketahuna, Waipukurau, East Cape, Northeast of East Cape, Tokoroa, Taumarunui.
Volcanos quiet.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

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