Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 15 September 2020 - 22 September 2020

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The forecast period gave excellent results from a small number of risk locations.
Spaceweather was well defined during the period, unusual for Solar Minimum when conditions tend to linger for several days.
The very long East of Whangamata sequence is ending.
New spaceweather is due 26 September and may ramp up strongly over the following days as aurora season picks up again.
Volcanic Plateau is a likely risk location.
15 September.
Northwest of Levin 4.1 8.44am
East of Whangamata 4.5 7.29pm (4.3 Geonet)
16 September.
30km East of East Cape 4.1 5.56pm
17 September.
South of Kermadec Islands 5.0 3.08am
18 September.
Offshore Puysegur Point 4.0 8.02am

Update. 17 September 9.00am
16 September.
30km East of East Cape 4.1 5.56pm
17 September.
South of Kermadec Islands 5.0 3.08am
Quakes have fitted into place on the map and from a reduced number of risk locations compared to previous forecast periods.
Spaceweather is quiet and seems likely to stay that way for several days.
The forecast period has probably ended.

Update. 15 September 11.00pm
15 September.
Northwest of Levin 4.1 8.44am
East of Whangamata 4.5 7.29pm (4.3 Geonet)
Spaceweather has arrived on cue and quakes have followed.
An aftershock quake Northwest of Levin indicates pressure in Taranaki Bight but not quite in the risk location offered.
The Whangamata 4.5 is an aftershock.
Note. EMSC data is preferred over Geonet data in offshore locations.
Spaceweather is easing tonight following an active Pacific day.
Residual isolated quakes are possible on 16 September.

Forecast.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are East of Whangamata, Kawerau, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape, Atiamuri, Masterton, Cook Strait, Cape Campbell, Northwest of D"Urville Island, South of Haast, Pyke River, Big Bay, Northwest Arm Te Anau.
Volcanos quiet.
The period is likely to be extended.