Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 15 September 2020 - 22 September 2020

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The map was a good fit in time and location to events from a small number of risk locations.
An explosive eruption of Sangay deposited ash widely across six provinces in Ecuador.
Spaceweather was well confined to a specific time parameter during the period, unusual for Solar Minimum where it tends to linger for several days.
Conditions remain quiet on 22 September, new spaceweather is due 26 September and may then build strongly for several days as aurora season powers up again.
15 September.
Kamchatka Peninsula 6.4 3.41pm
North of Fiji 6.1 4.12pm
19 September.
Central Mid Atlantic Ocean 6.9 9.43am
Eruption Sangay

Update. 17 September 9.00am
Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet.
Spaceweather is quiet, the period has probably ended.
Conditions look set to be quiet for several days.

Update. 15 September 11.00pm
15 September.
Kamchatka Peninsula 6.4 3.41pm
North of Fiji 6.1 4.12pm
Quakes have arrived, falling into place on the map from a low number of risk locations offered...keeping the forecasters happy and the sceptics guessing.
A deep Kamchatka 6.4 may have following quakes.
The North of Fiji 6.1 was close to the Northern Tonga risk location which remains a risk location.
Spaceweather arrived on cue and has mostly passed through tonight.
The forecast period is extended to 16 September, isolated late quakes possible.

Forecast.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Efate, Banda Sea, Southwest of Guam, Kamchatka Peninsula, South of Atacama, Barbados.
Long lasting low level eruptions at familiar volcanos have become subdued and may remain that way.
The period is likely to be extended.