Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 5 October 2014 - 6 October 2014

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Fiordland, East Cape, North Wairarapa. Activity should be stronger in the southern hemisphere, so volcanoes may stay quiet except for Bardarbunga which is huge and ongoing. Volcano confidence= low. NZ volcanoes quiet. Summary. 5 Oct. Kermadecs 4.4
6 Oct. Kermadecs 4.4, south of Rotorua 5.1. 7 Oct. North Wairarapa 4.6, 4.0.
8 Oct. China 6.0, Gulf of California 6.2. 9 Oct. SE Pacific Ocean 7.1, 6.6. This forecast worked well with excellent location success. The Rotorua quake was part of a quake storm across the North Island. Unexpected solar drivers turned up just as the 8 Oct. lunar eclipse began, creating strong seismic activity near the equator. The eclipse had no seismic effects, lunar perigee on 6 Oct. was a better indicator for lunar modulation.
Volcano Summary.
Bardarbunga: The eruption is ongoing and unchanged, huge lava flows and continued subsidence of the caldera floor.
Slamet, Ontake: No activity.
Mayon: No eruption during the period but lava started rising faster inside the volcano. The Philippine seismologists are certain of a major eruption, they just aren't sure when. This Service sympathises with them.
Sinabung: A major eruption on 6 Oct. is ongoing today.
Weather Summary.
Global weather went very big during the forecast period as strong solar drivers and lunar modulation cooked up many storms. NZ experienced widespread SW gales. Vanuatu experienced major flooding on Efate. Japan got lashed by Cyclone Phanfone. Guam was hit by Cyclone Vongfong, a Category 5 storm. Cyclone Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal developed also during the period.