Aotearoa Summary. 1 October 2020 - 10 October 2020
A long lasting moderate geomagnetic storm produced a long lasting quake period in New Zealand with some good forecast results. A strong polar jetstream shift came with the auroras, the worst Southland storm in 10 years and very windy. Quakes came soon after the forecast was posted, the Masterton 3.5 was the biggest and near to Mag 5 risk location Eketahuna. The 27 September Taumarunui 5.2 was widely felt. EMSC and USGS recorded Mag 4.7 for the quake...they can't all be right. Fiordland quakes came at the same time. Local and Pacific quakes eased during the middle part of the period as steady spaceweather kept the auroras going. A strong 2 October Snares Islands quake swarm may have been aided by Full Moon modulation. Wellington was bumpy during the period, quakes at Taita 3.9, Ward Island 3.6 and a smaller Johnsonville 2.8. The Ward Island 3.6 came with the big Papua New Guinea 6.3...quakes tend to cluster in time with the geomagnetic conditions. A very late 10 October quake cluster came well after spaceweather had faded away. New spaceweather isn't due for several days. Quakes in the next days, if any, are more likely in risk locations from this forecast period. 24 September. North of East Cape 4.2 3.04pm EMSC (4.8 Geonet) North of East Cape 4.2 8.42pm Masterton 3.5 9.28pm 27 September. 45km southwest of Taumarunui 5.2 4.47pm Geonet (4.7 EMSC, USGS) Northwest Arm Te Anau 3.8 10.36pm 28 Septmber. Southern Olivine Range 4.0 1.41pm 29 September. South of Kermadec Islands 5.2 1.17pm 29 September. Puysegur Point 3.7 7.11pm 1 October. 20km East of Ruapehu 3.7 7.45pm 2 October. 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.3 6.13am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.3 6.20am (Geonet 5.0) Low tide 6.50am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.1 8.05am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.4 9.08am 3 October. 45km SW of Taumarunui 4.0 7.40pm 4 October. Lower Hutt 3.9 4.20pm 6 October. West of Stewart Island 4.2 6.28pm 7 October. 200km North of East Cape 4.0 3.31am South of Kermadecs 4.1 2.26pm South of Kermadecs 4.6 10.42pm 8 October. Ward Island 3.6 10.15pm Johnsonville 2.8 10.19pm 10 October. Northeast of Taumarunui 4.4 4.52pm Southwest of Snares Islands 3.8 7.48pm Rolleston 3.3 9.59pm Update. 6 October 12.00pm Local quakes are quiet 5-6 October along with fading spaceweather. New spaceweather forecasted for late today is arriving now. Conditions are only expected to last for a day. The forecast period is extended to 7 October. East Cape, Tokomaru Bay, Tolaga Bay are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Fiordland/Mckerrow/Olivines Mag 6 remains possible. Confidence=low. 2 October. 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.3 6.13am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.3 6.20am (Geonet 5.0) Low tide 6.50am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.1 8.05am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.4 9.08am 3 October. 45km SW of Taumarunui 4.0 7.40pm 4 October. Lower Hutt 3.9 4.20pm 6 October. West of Stewart Island 4.2 6.28pm 7 October. 200km North of East Cape 4.0 3.31am South of Kermadecs 4.1 2.26pm South of Kermadecs 4.6 10.42pm 8 October. Ward Island 3.6 10.15pm Johnsonville 2.8 10.19pm 10 October. Northeast of Taumarunui 4.4 4.52pm Southwest of Snares Islands 3.8 7.48pm Rolleston 3.3 9.59pm Update. 4 October 4.30pm 2 October. 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.3 6.13am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.3 6.20am (Geonet 5.0) Low tide 6.50am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.1 8.05am 150km SW of Snares Islands 4.4 9.08am 3 October. 45km SW of Taumarunui 4.0 7.40pm 4 October. Lower Hutt 3.9 4.20pm Quakes have picked up 2-3 October as the end of the quake period draws closer. A significant quake swarm south of New Zealand indicates pressure into Fiordland and may eventually justify the low confidence outlook for Mag 6 at Lake Mckerrow, NW Te Anau region. The SW of Snares Islands swarm came just at low tide, indicating possible lunar modulation. The Taumarunui 4.0 was an aftershock to the 27 Sept. Taumarunui 5.2 Spaceweather has weakened last two days as the end of the period gets close but the end of long quake periods often show action although quake frequency is low. The forecast period is extended to 5 October. Quakes are likely to be infrequent. A very late, brief burst of spaceweather is due to arrive late 6 October and could bring some late quake action before conditions fade away. NW Te Anau, Offshore Milford, Lower Hollyford, Olivines, Pyke, Arawhata are South Island hotspots. Jetstream shifts have marked the period. The biggest Southland storm in 10 years has been matched by early season heavy snowstorms in European Alps, Italy, Greece. Update. 2 October 1.20pm 1 October. 20km East of Ruapehu 3.7 7.45pm The less active mid section of the forecast period is over and the active rear section is unfolding. Pacific quakes have gone Mag 6 today and local quakes are busier. Biggest local quake was East of Ruapehu 3.7. Spaceweather has picked up again late 1 October, the late arrival of forecasted 29-30 September conditions. The forecast period is extended to 2 October. Possibility Mag 6 Lake McKerrow, Northwest Arm Te Anau. Confidence=low. Full Moon may modulate quakes to low tide. Update. 30 September 11.15pm 30 September. Puysegur Point 3.7 7.11pm Local and Pacific quakes have sat quiet through the middle part of the week long geomagnetic storm. Biggest local quake today at Puysegur Point was low magnitude but good location success. Quakes are typically more active at the beginning and end of a geomagnetic forecast period. The forecasted strong new solar conditions have arrived several hours late and are much weaker than expected. Regardless, conditions are still at mild storm level. The forecast period is extended to 1 October. Full Moon may weakly modulate quakes to low tide for the next few days. Disturbed weather has marked the forecast period. Biggest storm in 10 years in Southland with the wind being a big factor according to some farmers. European Alps and Eastern Europe has also received a big storm and unseasonal early snow as jetstreams are powered up by the geomagnetic storm high above. Update. 30 September 1.00am 29 September. South of Kermadec Islands 5.2 1.17pm Action north of New Zealand but onshore quakes were ominously quiet. The big solar storm continues today, conditions slightly easing but still powering along. A quake buildup may be underway. Strong new solar conditions may arrive tonight. The forecast period is extended to 30 September. Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Confidence=low. Update. 28 September 4.00pm 27 September. 45km southwest of Taumarunui 5.2 4.47pm Geonet (4.7 EMSC, USGS) Northwest Arm Te Anau 3.8 10.36pm 28 Septmber. Southern Olivine Range 4.0 1.41pm Quakes have arrived with the big geomagnetic storm which looks set to last for a few more days. New and possibly stronger spaceweather is due late 29 September. A jetstream shift is also underway with polar outbursts reaching New Zealand and Australia. The forecast period is extended to 29 September. Quakes may migrate more into the South Island during the remainder of the period. Southern Olivine Range is increased to Mag 5 risk. Twizel, Murchison, Cape Campbell are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand from 30 September. Confidence=low. Update. 27 September 1.30am 24 September. North of East Cape 4.2 3.04pm EMSC (4.8 Geonet) North of East Cape 4.2 8.42pm Masterton 3.5 9.28pm Spaceweather arrived as the forecast was posted on 24 Septembeer 12.33pm and quakes followed soon after. Biggest onshore quake was the Masterton 3.5, felt in Wairarapa, Wellington and Horowhenua and near to Mag 5 risk location Eketahuna. Quakes have eased since then but new spaceweather is due to arrive as this update is posted with a continuation of mild geomagnetic storming. Mild geomagnetic storming is expected to continue to a stronger peak on 29 September. A strong quake buildup is underway in response. The forecast period is extended to 27 September. Puysegur, Doubtful Sound, St Arnaud, Wairoa, Waikaremoana, Murupara, Kaingaroa are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Volcanic Plateau, Bay of Plenty is higher risk. Weather systems above ground are powered up by auroras, indicating a strong storm in the Tasman Sea may increase in strength next days. Forecast. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Eketahuna, George Sound, Bligh Sound. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest Arm Te Anau, Pyke River, South of Haast, Hanmer, Cook Strait, South of Wanganui, North of D'Urville Island, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, Motiti, East of Whangamata. Volcanos quiet. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
