Pacific Summary. 1 October 2020 - 10 October 2020
Moderate long lasting geomagnetic storming produced a mix bag of forecast results. Quakes took several days to evolve, mild eruptions were steady. Signature shield volcano Piton de la Fournaise inflated strongly early in the period, local seismologists expecting an eruption. Ironically, the volcano deflated again as the forecast period ended...no eruption this time. Quakes finally arrived on 1 October but no location success and simple forecast mistakes in Southwest Pacific. A large quake swarm in Southern California risk location up to Mag 4.9 justified the forecast. Nearby Los Angeles has recorded Mag 6 quakes from these types of swarms according to USGS seismologists. Quakes went under Mag 6 again for several days as the middle section of a long period unfolded. Quakes tend to come more frequently at the beginning and end of forecast periods and often quieter in between. Biggest quake during these 4 days was Shetland Islands 5.8, giving an excellent result from this infrequently forecasted location. The addition of Tonga/Pangai to 6 October risk locations gave results with the nearby 11.17pm 600km deep Fiji 6.0. More SW Pacific locations should have been added following this deep quake. Several big quakes in the New Britain/PNG region followed, including two eruptions at Kadovar and Langila. Spaceweather was fading away by 7 October, signalling a final burst of quakes. Quakes then fell below Mag 6 although the Fox Islands 5.7 was a good location success. New spaceweather isn't due for several days. Mag 6 quakes, if any, are more likely in risk locations from this forecast period. 27 September. South of Africa 6.1 6.10am Eruption Pacaya, Etna. 1 October. Southern California 4.9 1.31pm +swarm Tonga 6.4 2.13pm New Britain 6.0 11.34pm 2 October. South Shetland Islands 5.8 11.17pm Eruption Etna. 6 October. Fiji 6.0 11.11pm Alaska Peninsula 5.9 6.54pm 7 October. Eruption Kadovar, Langila. 8 October. Eastern Papua New Guinea 6.3 8.35pm 9 October. Fox Islands 5.7 3.22am New Britain 5.8 4.58am Eruption Sangay. Update. 6 October 12.00pm. Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet along with fading spaceweather 5-6 October. Southern California quake swarm has died away completely last two days. Vulcanologists at Piton de la Fournaise report the volcano is still expanding. New spaceweather forecasted for late 6 October is arriving now and is likely to last for only a day. The forecast period is extended to 7 October. South of Tanna, Northern Vanuatu, Pangai are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Southern California quake swarm may pick up again. Mag 6 remains possible. Piton de la Fournaise is added to eruption risks. Update. 4 October 3.30pm. 2 October. South Shetland Islands 5.8 11.17pm Eruption Etna. Pacific quakes and eruptions have been subdued despite strong spaceweather. Biggest quake was in infrequently forecasted South Shetland Islands, giving an excellent result at that location. The Southern California quake swarm is slowing down although USGS seismologists say a big quake is still possible. Spaceweather is a mixed bag, protons slowing down as the solar storm of the last days comes to an end. Electrons are at storm level however so Mag 6 remains possible although quake frequency will fade away. Quakes and eruptions haven't matched the input energy from the solar storm so a late big release is possible. The forecast period is extended to 5 October. A very late spaceweather burst is possible late 6 October and likely to last one day. Update. 2 October 12.00am 1 October. Southern California 4.9 1.31pm +swarm Tonga 6.4 2.13pm New Britain 6.0 11.34pm Pacific quakes have gone Mag 6 as spaceweather arrives a day later than expected. A big Salton Sea/Southern California swarm is underway in Mag 6 risk location. Hopefully the swarm doesn't go bigger, the rest of California and Oregon is quite busy. Frustration behind the scenes with the Tonga 6.4. The forecast map was too light on SW Pacific risk locations. Spaceweather is set to continue for the next day as a dangerously long quake period unfolds. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Update. 30 September 11.00pm Pacific quakes and eruptions have sat ominously quiet through the mid part of the week long geomagnetic storm. New solar conditions forecasted for 30 September have arrived a few hours later than and weaker than expected. Regardless, the new conditions are keeping the storm in progress for another day. Quakes are typically more active at the start and end of the period which is approaching in the next days. The forecast period is extended to 1 October. Seismologists at Piton de la Fournaise observed strong volcanic tremor today and are touting for an eruption soon. Update. 30 September 1.00am Pacific quakes are ominously quiet. Geomagnetic storms have continued today and new conditions are possible about now. A Pacific buildup is underway. The forecast period is extended to 30 September. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Seismologists at Piton de la Fournaise have announced the volcano is expanding and an eruption is likely very soon. Update. 28 September 4.30pm 27 September. South of Africa 6.1 6.10am Eruption Pacaya, Etna. A big geomagnetic storm is underway and set to last for several days yet. Quakes have been subdued and will eventually release as the period advances. Hindu Kush, Northern Iran are high risk locations. The forecast period is extended to 29 September. Solar storm conditions may increase late on 29 September. Efate, Southern Honshu, Fox Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 27 September 1.30am Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet. Spaceweather arrived on cue as the forecast was posted and mild geomagnetic storming has been underway for two days with spectacular auroras. New spaceweather is due to arrive about now and continue until a third stronger peak arrives 29 September. A strong quake buildup phase is underway in response to the strong spaceweather. The forecast period is extended to 27 September. Caucasus Mountains are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Forecast. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Banda Sea, Timor, Java, Southern Philippines, Southern California, Colima, Barbados, Costa Rica, Southern Ecuador, Northern Peru, South Shetland Islands, Hindu Kush. Volcanic activity may increase. Sangay, Pacaya, Kadovar. The forecast period is likely to be extended Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
