Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 26 October 2020 - 5 November 2020

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The period was an extension to the 21 -25 October period and kept building up with a long lasting solar windstream.
The 30 October outlook for Pacific Mag 7 gave some results but in Turkey....the effects of auroras are global.
The North of Samos 7.0 caused several building collapses in nearby Izmir and 116 deaths so far.
Miraculously a 3 year old girl was pulled unharmed from under the rubble four days after the quake.
31 October was the peak of the period with the Samos 7.0 and typhoon Goni powering up to Cat 5 briefly before crossing Philippines.
Pacific quakes were slightly under Mag 6 during the period but very good location success in South America.
A new period begins 7 November and could build up over several days to become powerful as new sunspot activity builds.
26 October.
Eruption Karymsky.
28 October.
South of Valparaiso 5.5 5.52pm
Southern Peru 5.6 10.02pm
29 October.
Vanuatu/Gaua 5.8 3.12am
Chile/North of Valparaiso 5.8 3.53am
31 October.
Turkey/North of Samos 7.0 12.51am
1 November.
South Banda Sea 5.7 4.43pm
2 November.
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Ebeko.

Update. 3 November 12.00am
2 November.
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Ebeko.
The period has probably ended with the non arrival of the 31 October- 1 November mild solar shock.
Kamchatka eruptions are picking up again following several weeks of quiet.
Typhoon Goni briefly reached Cat 5 on 31 October before dropping back just as it reached Philippines.
Quakes are likely to be very infrequent on 3 November.
Eruptions tend to come late in a forecast period or slightly later so Pacific eruptions are possible 3 November.

Update. 2 November 12.00am
31 October.
Turkey/North of Samos 7.0 12.51am
1 November.
South Banda Sea 5.7 4.43pm
The Samos 7.0 has collapsed buildings in Izmir and Samos with 30 deaths so far and climbing.
The Pacific Mag 7 outlook is partly justified.
Biggest Pacific quake last days, South Banda Sea 5.7 was in a risk location although low magnitude.
Volcanos are apparently quiet.
Spaceweather has been steadily weakening as the solar wind stream runs out of legs.
The outlook for a mild solar shock from the 27 October coronal mass ejection hasn't happened.
The shock may still arrive, they can travel very slowly, although confidence is low.
The forecast period is extended to 2 November.

Update. 30 October 1.30pm
29 October.
Vanuatu/Gaua 5.8 3.12am
Chile/North of Valparaiso 5.8 3.53am
A cluster of quakes, including the Offshore New Plymouth 4.7, lasted less than an hour with one excellent location success and the Vanuatu 5.8 meeting the SW Pacific hotspot outlook.
A long lasting solar windstream is slowly fading ahead of a mild solar shock due late 31 October/1 November.
Pacific quakes are likely to remain infrequent ahead of the shock.
Tail ends of solar windstreams often bring extra quake activity.
Macquarie Island is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low.
Chile, SW Pacific are higher risk.

Update. 29 October 12.00am
28 October.
South of Valparaiso 5.5 5.52pm
Southern Peru 5.6 10.02pm
Pacific quakes got busy this afternoon.
South America risk locations became active along with the slightly smaller Offshore Clarence 4.8.
New Earth facing sunspot AR12778 is fizzing and will bring an uptick in quakes over the next days with a new quake peak on 31 October- 1 November.
Low frequency quakes seem likely next few days with Mag 7 possible by the weekend.
Volcanic activity has been subdued during the period but may also increase substantially by 1 November.
The forecast period is extended to 29 October.
Andreanof Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Merapi is added to volcanos.

Update. 28 October 12.00am
26 October.
Eruption Karymsky.
Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet.
Spaceweather has remained steady at minor storm level during the period, the forecasted strong burst on 26 October never happened.
The end of the forecast period is approaching when quakes typically pickup.
The forecast period is extended to 28 October.
Southwest Pacific remains higher risk.

Forecast.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Guadalcanal, New Britain, Southern Mentawai Islands, Alaska Peninsula, Gulf of Alaska, Offshore Vancouver Island, Southern California, Southern Peru, North of Valparaiso, Southern Atacama.
Southwest Pacific is higher risk.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Karymsky, Langila.
The forecast period is an extension to the 21-25 October period.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.