Aotearoa Summary. 26 October 2020 - 5 November 2020
Mag 5 risk for Eastern Bay of Plenty wasn't justified, the area is likely to remain Mag 5+ risk during the following forecast period beginning 7 November. Heating at White Island continued during the period and the volcano is likely to become an eruption risk very soon. Geonet announced a heating cycle is underway at Ruapehu, going from 12C to 22C in a couple of weeks. Eruption temperature 45C is still a few weeks away. Geonet have failed again to notice that White Island and Ruapehu are heating at the same time. Raising Waipukurau to Mag 5 risk gave some results with the nearby West of Napier 4.0 a day later. Small Sumner 3.2 action slightly justified the Rolleston Mag 3 risk, big quakes in Christchurch seem very unlikely in 2020. The forecasted 1 November mild solar shock never eventuated, the shock either missed or was very small...there were some spaceweather fluctuations. The forecast period dragged out as the forecasters lost confidence awaiting the action and spaceweather faded away instead. Quakes went quiet 3-5 November ahead of another possibly strong period beginning 7 November. 26 October. South of Kermadecs 4.1 12.47am 27 October. North of East Cape 4.5 11.22pm 28 October. 50km East of Clarence 4.8 4.01pm 29 October. 200km WNW of New Plymouth 4.7 3.23am EMSC Sumner 3.2 6.34pm 31 October. Ruatoria 3.7 7.14pm 30km Northwest of Napier 4.0 9.55pm 2 November. Upper Waitaha River 4.6 10.10pm Update. 3 November 12.00am 2 November. Upper Waitaha River 4.6 10.10pm The period has probably ended. Spaceweather has fluctuated today but no real sign of the mild shock wave from the 27 October coronal mass ejection from the Sun. The shock wave has missed, was very weak or is still on its way which seems unlikely. Local quakes were largely quiet today. Quakes are likely to be very infrequent on 3 November. Update. 2 November 12.00am 31 October. Ruatoria 3.7 7.14pm 30km Northwest of Napier 4.0 9.55pm Local quakes are largely quiet as spaceweather slowly weakens. The mild solar shock from a coronal mass ejection on 27 October hasn't arrived within the time parameter of late 31 October - 1 November. The mild storm may be slow moving and could still turn up although confidence is low. The forecast period is extended to 2 November. Update. 30 October 1.30pm 29 October. 200km WNW of New Plymouth 4.7 3.23am EMSC Sumner 3.2 6.34pm Local quakes were infrequent on 29 October as a long lasting solar wind stream slowly fades. The offshore New Plymouth 4.7 was deleted by Geonet. This Service uses mostly EMSC and USGS data for offshore quakes. The Port Hills/Sumner 3.2 didn't quite match the outlook for Rolleston Mag 3 although more small action could come when a solar shock wave arrives late 31 October/1 November. The forecast period is extended to 31 October. Snares Islands, Waipukurau are added to Mag 5 risk locations. Quakes are likely to be infrequent ahead of the late 31 October mild solar shock. Update. 29 October 12.00am 28 October. 50km East of Clarence 4.8 4.01pm Todays Offshore Clarence 4.8 was felt in Wellington, Blenheim, Kaikoura and Christchurch and in an unusual location where Mag 4 is uncommon, the forecast going for Cook Strait instead. Solar conditions have suddenly fired up today with the arrival of busy sunspot AR12778 and a coronal mass ejection. These conditions have changed the forecast which is now extended for several more days with a new peak on 31 November-1 December upon the arrival of the coronal mass ejection. Steady spaceweather is likely until then. Quakes are likely to remain low frequency but high magnitude risk on 29 October. A big Pacific push may be underway. St Arnaud is added to Mag 4 risk locations. Update. 28 October 12.00am 26 October. South of Kermadecs 4.1 12.47am 27 October. North of East Cape 4.5 11.22pm Local and Pacific quakes are largely quiet. Spaceweather is at minor storm level, including an electron storm. The expected 26 October strong spaceweather pickup never happened, conditions remaining moderate instead. Spaceweather is now slowly weakening as the end of the period approaches and when quakes typically give a late burst. The forecast period is extended to 28 October. Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Forecast. Magnitude 6 risk location is South of Kermadec Islands. Magnitude 5 risk locations are North of White Island, Te Kaha, East Cape. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Taupo, Taumarunui, South of Wanganui, South of Gisborne, Mahia, Waipukurau, Dannievirke, Eketahuna, Masterton, Southwest of Turakirae Head, Cape Campbell, Lower Landsborough River, Lower Arawhata River, Cascade River, Pyke River, Offshore Bligh Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Doubtful Sound, Snares Islands. Magnitude 3 risk location is Rolleston. Possibility Mag 6 East Cape, Bay of Plenty. Confidence=low. Volcanos quiet. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
