Aotearoa Summary. 7 November 2020 - 11 November 2020
The forecast was quicky dropped on 8 November as a mild coronal hole solar windstream faded away and active sunspot AR12781 started to decay as it became Earth facing. Quakes fell back below Mag 4 for the next days but largest quakes were in risk locations. Local vulcanologists announced heating at Ruapehu although temperature is still far too low for an eruption. Tremor at White Island went up in pulses early in the period. Mild steam eruptions seem possible but no announcements from the vulcanologists. White Island then went quiet although a small quake swarm today indicates the volcano isn't settled and an eruption may still occur in following periods. Sunspot activity is strongest for 3 years right now, more sunspots are on the way soon and some strong quakes and eruptions are likely to follow. 7 November. Taumarunui 3.8 6.25am 8 November. North of White Island 4.6 5.57am 10 November. 50km NNE White Island 3.9 2.28pm Mid Arawhata River 3.5 11.32pm 11 November. 120km West of Snares Islands 3.5 4.48pm Update. 8 November 12.30pm 7 November. Taumarunui 3.8 6.25am 8 November. North of White Island 4.6 5.57am Mild spaceweather from a coronal hole solar windstream has come and gone. Mild spaceweather fluctuations next day may bring on quakes. The period has probably ended. Large sunspot AR12781 has rotated to be Earth facing but is weakening. An Earth directed flare from the big sunspot is still possible next couple of days. A strong flare will become less likely as the sunspot decays. Tremor is pulsing at White Island but an eruption seems unlikely during this period unless spaceweather picks up unexpectedly. Forecast. Magnitude 5 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Hikurangi, Eketahuna, Snares Islands. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Lower Arawhata River, Upper Hokitika River, Murchison, St Arnaud, Cape Campbell, Southwest of Turakirae Head, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Taumarunui, Taupo, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape, Tokomaru Bay. White Island may be added as an eruption risk later in the period. The period is likely to build up over several days. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
