Pacific Summary. 7 November 2020 - 11 November 2020
Dropping the forecast early was justified. Sunspot 2781 grew large as it became Earth facing but never flared. Southwest Pacific was the Pacific hotspot and justified the large number of risk locations with near perfect risk location success at Mag 4.5+. Volcanos were hot. Indonesian seismologists ordered the evacuation of several villages around Merapi but the volcano stayed tight. Merapi is likely to erupt soon in a pyroclastic eruption. Sunspot activity is strongest for three years right now, new sunspots are following AR12781. Heating and tremor at White Island and Ruapehu followed the Pacific volcanic trend with conditions dropping away after 7 November. 7 November. South Shetland Islands 6.0 12.49pm Northeast of Iwo Jima 6.0 2.10pm Tonga/Hihifo 6.2 10.27pm Eruption Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi. 9 November. North of Macquarie Island 4.6 8.42pm 10 November. New Ireland 5.5 3.45am 11 November. South of Fiji 6.0 1.48pm Update. 8 November 12.00pm 7 November. South Shetland Islands 6.0 12.49pm Northeast of Iwo Jima 6.0 2.10pm Tonga/Hihifo 6.2 10.27pm Eruption Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi. A short lived burst of quakes and eruptions have arrived with a mild coronal hole solar windstream. Spaceweather has since weakened dramatically to background levels. The period may have ended. Mild spaceweather fluctuations are possible next day but seem unlikely to drive much activity. Large Solar Cycle 25 sunspot AR12781 has rotated around to face Earth today. A flare could change the forecast period and drive quakes but the sunspot is decaying. The sunspot could still flare in the next couple of days despite weakening. Forecast. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Northern Vanuatua, Bougainville, New Ireland, New Britain, Eastern Papua New Guinea, South Banda Sea, Northern Kuril Islands, Aleutian Islands, Southern Peru, Southern Atacama, South of Valdivia. Volcanic activity may increase. Merapi, Barren Island, Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi, Korovin. The period is likely to build up over several days. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
