Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 22 November 2020 - 30 November 2020

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Quakes became busy with the arrival of a moderate but short lived coronal hole windstream.
Good location success at Snares Islands with a moderate swarm.
Spaceweather soon faded and quakes faded in response.
Spaceweather briefly picked up on 26 November but New Zealand stayed quiet.
Late action on 30 November was after the forecast period ended but met the rule of thumb once more that quakes after a period ends are more likely in those risk locations.
White Island has cooled during the period.
Seismologists may announce in the next days that ash pluming has ended at the volcano.
Sunspot action is ramping up hugely as Solar Cycle 25 unfolds.
Big Earth facing sunspot AR2786 is decaying and unlikely to flare but a new sunspot on the southeast horizon is rotating around to face Earth in a week and let go an M4 flare today.
Spaceweather is very unsettled as a result with a proton storm underway.
Pacific quakes and eruptions are possible next days, a detailed forecast can't be posted until late 1 December.
23 November.
200km Northeast of East Cape 4.4 6.24am
15km Northwest of Gisborne 4.2 8.25am
North of East Cape 4.0 2.43pm EMSC
Northwest of Snares 3.9 10.58pm + swarm
30 November.
30km West of Ruapehu 4.6 6.12am
South of Kermadecs 5.4 10.45am
North of East Cape 4.6 5.34pm

Update. 26 November 10.30am
Local quakes are quiet.
A late small burst of spaceweather has arrived.
Isolated, infrequent quakes are possible on 26 November.
Snares Islands, Fiordland are higher risk.
White Island is unsettled, mild steam eruption is possible.

Update. 25 November 10.45am
23 November.
North of East Cape 4.0 2.43pm EMSC
Northwest of Snares 3.9 10.58pm + swarm
Local and Pacific quakes have become subdued as spaceweather fades.
Biggest local quake was the NW of Snares Islands 3.9 and swarm at Mag 5 risk location.
Local quakes seem set to fade as spaceweather fades slightly earlier than expected.
Regardless, infrequent residual quakes are possible on 25 November.
Snares Islands, Fiordland are higher risk.

Update. 23 November 11.00am
23 November.
200km Northeast of East Cape 4.4 6.24am
15km Northwest of Gisborne 4.2 8.25am
Spaceweather has built steadily since the onset of new coronal hole solar windstream conditions on 22 November.
Quakes have become very busy overnight and likely to continue.
The forecast period is extended to 24 November.
White Island may become an eruption risk later in the period, a steady but weak ash plume persists at the volcano today.

Forecast.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Lower Arawhata River, Lower Waiatoto River, South of Kermadec Islands.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Doubtful Sound, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Bligh Sound, Offshore Milford Sound, Pyke River, Olivine Range, Cascade River, Upper Waitaha River, Upper Hokitika River, Rolleston, Cape Campbell, Seddon, South of Wellington, Southern Wairarapa, Eketahuna, Waipukurau, South of Taranaki, Taihape, West of Ruapehu, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Taupo, White Island, Te Kaha, East Cape, Tokomaru Bay.
White Island has been pluming ash since 11 November at a decreasing rate. Pluming is likely to increase over the next days.
The 22 November 7.00am Northwest of Snares Islands 4.8 USGS, EMSC came before the forecast was posted and isn't plotted on the map.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.