Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 22 November 2020 - 30 November 2020

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Pacific quakes and eruptions were evenly matched during the period with good quake location success and a new volcanic player.
Moderate spaceweather arrived on cue and good quake location success at Chile and Fiji soon followed.
Spaceweather faded and then a slight burst picked up on 26 November just as the forecast was about to be dropped.
Extending the period to 26 November was justified.
The forecast was chasing quakes south of New Zealand, a difficult forecast area, and the arrival of the Ballenys 6.1 gave some justification to southern risk locations in addition to the time parameter success.
The eruption at Kliuchevskoi is ongoing and showing no sign of easing.
Indonesian volcanos are hot.
Merapi is pluming and seismologists have ordered evacuations.
Sinabung has returned to regular small ash and pyroclastic eruptions.
Semeru on Eastern Java is in low level eruption with a small lava flow.
A decent eruption at Lewotolo on Eastern Indonesian island Lembata is the first since 2012 and adds a new volcanic player to a heating Indonesia.
Quakes went quiet after 26 November as spaceweather faded again.
Sunspot activity is extremely high as big high latitude Solar Cycle 25 sunspots emerge.
AR2786 became Earth facing on 29 November but is decaying.
An M4 solar flare from new sunspot on SE horizon indicates more action may be coming soon.
22 November.
Chile/South of Valparaiso 6.2 1.54pm
West of Fiji 5.5 6.18pm
Eastern Honshu 5.5 11.05pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi
26 November.
Northwest of Balleny Islands 6.1 11.56am
Eruption Sinabung, Etna.
29 November.
Eruption Lewotolo.

Update. 26 November 10.30am
Pacific quakes and eruptions are largely quiet.
A late small burst of spaceweather overnight has delayed dropping the forecast for a day.
The forecast period is extended to 26 November.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent.

Update. 25 November 10.30am
Pacific quakes and eruptions are mostly quiet apart from a few familiar ongoing eruptions at Suwanosejima and Ebeko.
Merapi is very expanded and likely to blow anytime according to Indonesian seismologists.
Spaceweather hasn't lasted as long as originally anticipated and the forecast period is ending.
Residual activity still seems possible on 25 November.
Sunspot activity is high with new large sunspots likely to be Earth facing in three or four days.

Update. 23 November 11.00am
22 November.
Chile/South of Valparaiso 6.2 1.54pm
West of Fiji 5.5 6.18pm
Eastern Honshu 5.5 11.05pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi
Spaceweather from a coronal hole solar windstream is steadily building and quakes have followed.
Biggest quakes so far are in or near risk locations.
The ongoing eruption of Kliuchevskoi is a no brainer forecast pick, action is steadily increasing.
Spaceweather is likely to remain steady for at least the next days.
The forecast period is extended to 24 November.

Forecast.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Northwest of Auckland Island, Southwest of Snares Islands, Kermadec Islands, South of Kermadecs, Tonga, Vanuatu, New Ireland, New Britain, Southern Mentawai Islands, Molucca Sea, Mindanao, Northeastern Honshu, Coquimbo, Central Himalayas, Southern Greece.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Merapi, Sinabung, Kliuchevskoi, Villarrica.
The period is likely to be extended.