Aotearoa Summary. 9 December 2020 - 15 December 2020
New Zealand stayed mostly quiet despite the South of Kermadecs 5.9. Fiordland was quiet, no forecast success there. The period was mostly volcanic (at the expense of quakes) around the globe. Taranaki received a couple of rare quakes near the crater, matching significant volcanic tremor and inflation at Kilauea and Mauna Loa. The effects of sunspot AR2790 have lasted since 29 November although the sunspot is now gone. The Pacific volcanic spell is significantly concurrent with the passing of the sunspot as Solar Cycle 25 gathers pace. 11 December. South of Kermadec Islands 5.9 9.42am 10km NE of Motiti Island 4.2 3.52pm EMSC 12 December. South of Kermadecs 4.9 4.30am 15 December. Kahurangi 4.4 1057am Update. 12 December 2.45pm 11 December. South of Kermadec Islands 5.9 9.42am 10km NE of Motiti Island 4.2 3.52pm EMSC 12 December. South of Kermadecs 4.9 4.30am Spaceweather arrived on cue late 10 December but was much weaker than forecasted due to a weak magnetic connection. Aurora watchers were slightly disappointed with the weak response. Regardless, a mild Pacific quake response did arrive, including a South of Kermadecs 5.9 and Tonga 5.9 just 6 minutes apart. Spaceweather has weakened since 11 December. Infrequent, residual quakes are possible 12 December as the period winds down. Fiordland is higher risk. Update. 10 December 3.00pm Local quakes are quiet during the early part of the period. The outlook for a moderate solar shock from sunspot AR2790 on 10 December is justified. Geomagnetic storming is underway from 3.00pm. The forecast period is extended to 11 December. Local quakes are likely to pick up strongly tonight. Taumarunui, Taupo, Atiamuri, Rotorua, Whakatane, Te Kaha, East Cape, Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay are added to Mag 4 risk locations. Rolleston, Sumner are added to Mag 3 risk locations. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Forecast. 9-10 December 2020. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Doubtful Sound. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Bligh Sound, Offshore Milford Sound, Pyke River, Cascade River, Lower Arawhata River, Upper Hokitika River, St Arnaud, Clarence, Ward, Cape Campbell, South of Taranaki, Masterton, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Hastings. Volcanos quiet. Infrequent quakes on 9 December are likely to build strongly on 10 December. Fiordland is higher risk. North Island risk locations may be added on 10 December. The period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
