Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 9 December 2020 - 15 December 2020

Click to Enlarge

Eruptions and volcanic quake swarms dominated the period.
The coronal mass ejection arrival from the 7 November AR2790 C7 flare was a fizzer but still had enough energy to drive a mild Pacific quake spell on 11 November.
Eruptions then took over.
A big brief paroxysm with 100 meter high lava fountains unfolded at Etna, meeting the forecast profile.
Guatemala volcano Santiaguito added to the nearby eruption of Fuego.
A moderate eruption at Lewotolo marked a pickup since the big 29 November eruption and concurrent proton storm from AR2790.
Quake swarms and inflation at Kilauea, Mauna Loa and even a Mag 4.4 at Mauna Kea marked a significant volcanic spell.
A late Atacama 6.0 was slightly south of Titicaca risk location.

11 December.
Taiwan 6.1 2.19am
South of Kermadec Islands 5.9 9.42am
Tonga/NW of Neiafu 5.9 9.48am
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Fuego, Santiaguito
13 December.
Eruption Lewotolo
14 December.
Eruption Etna
15 December.
Atacama 6.0 4.20am

Update. 12 December 2.30pm
11 December.
Taiwan 6.1 2.19am
South of Kermadec Islands 5.9 9.42am
Tonga/NW of Neiafu 5.9 9.48am
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Fuego.
Spaceweather arrived on cue in the late afternoon 10 December but was much weaker than expected.
The magnetic connection was weak and the current never connected strongly.
A mild quake response began early 11 December with mixed location success and quakes barely reaching Mag 6.
Spaceweather has eased substantially since then.
Moderate ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos is likely to continue.
Infrequent late activity is possible on 12 December.

Forecast. 9-10 December 2020.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, NW of Auckland Island, Snares Islands, Tonga/Neiafu, Northern Vanuatu, Guadalcanal, South Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Mindanao, South Kuril Islands, Northern Gulf of California, Colima, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Titicaca, North of Valparaiso.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent on 9 December, increasing strongly with the arrival of strong spaceweather late 10 December.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Semeru, Lewotolo, Kliuchevskoi, Popocatepetl, Fuego, Piton de la Fournaise, Etna.
Volcanos are likely to fire up after 10 December.
The 7-8 December eruption of Piton de la Fournaise may resume later in the period.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.