Aotearoa Summary. 29 December 2020 - 5 January 2021
Volcanic Plateau heating previously led to vulcanologists raising Ruapehu to Level 2 alert and closing the crater area. Ironically Ruapehu never erupted although White Island gave off a few steam puffs, defying the vulcanologists assertion for at least the third time since 2012 that volcanos aren't linked. They have no hope of ever making a forecast unless they acknowledge this fundamental and easily observable fact. Weather at Ruapehu was closed in at the time of the White Island eruption but the forecast speculation on 11.30am 30 December that a degassing occurred at Ruapehu the previous day or overnight gained credit when the vulcanologists announced the White Island eruption a few hours later at 5.15pm. Ruapehu possibly degassed or had a minor steam eruption on 29 December along with White Island but poor visibility and no summit webcam has meant no visual observation exists. The heating episode at both volcanos has probably ended, tremor has fallen away. The heating episode at Ruapehu and White Island, peaking on 29 December matched several eruptions around the globe. The big December global volcanic period came to New Zealand. New spaceweather is due 6 January. 29 December. Steam eruption White Island 3.00pm 30 December. Puysegur Point 4.8 6.33am 31 December. 10km NE Pauatahanui 4.5 1.10am New Brighton 2.8 6.38pm 2 January. 10km E. Pauatahanui 4.2 4.57am Aotearoa Update. 31 December 7.30pm via smartphone from Ruapehu. 31 December. 10km NE Pauatahanui 4.5 1.10am New Brighton 2.8 6.38pm Steam eruption White Island 29 December 3.00pm The Pauatahanui 4.5 woke people up around Wellington, Hutt Valley, Kapiti and in Manawatu, Wairarapa, Blenheim, following the arrival of mild spaceweather on cue late in the evening. Brief, mild spaceweather has rapidly faded and the period has probably ended. Residual quakes if any are more likely in the same risk locations, including Pauatahanui. Geonet have made an announcement just 5 hours after yesterdays forecast update. White Island had a brief steam eruption on 29 December 3.00pm. Ruapehu was under heavy cloud cover on the same Tuesday afternoon so no visual sightings for steam eruption or degassing were possible. Tremor fell out at Ruapehu on 29 December slightly later than the 3pm White Island eruption so the forecast speculation for a degassing at Ruapehu late 29 December is consistent with White Island action the same day. White Island typically becomes active just prior to action at Ruapehu, Ngauruhoe and Tongariro. The 5 August 2012 White Island eruption was followed by the 6 August 2012 Tongariro eruption. The September 2016 Ruapehu heating episode was matched by White Island heating and came with the 2 September 2016 East Cape 7.1 and later on the Kaikoura quake. The 2020 heating episode is added as ongoing evidence for physical and temporal links between eruptions, quakes and solar activity in New Zealand. Today only very small steam wisps were visible above Ruapehu crater lake from our observation post into the Upper Whangaehu River and the crater lake outlet. The crater lake is cooling. New spaceweather is due 6 January. An updated forecast map is unavailable today. Aotearoa Update. 30 December 11.30am via smartphone from Ruapehu. 30 December. Puysegur Point 4.8 6.33am Retaining Fiordland as Mag 5 risk from the previous forecast period is justified. More Fiordland action may follow with the arrival of new spaceweather later today. A plane making multiple low passes over Ruapehu crater lake just now is likely to be the vulcanologists collecting gas samples. Hopefully they will make an announcement later today. Tremor has stopped overnight possibly due to a degassing releasing pressure. Tremor is likely to resume later today. Weather is clear with strong southerly and perfect observing conditions from our base near Tukino. An updated forecast map isn't available. Forecast. 30-31 December 2020. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Fiordland. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Upper Takaka, Kahurangi, Motueka, Tapawera, Murchison, St Arnaud, East Cape, Tokomaru Bay. Volcanic tremor at Ruapehu is high and may increase to eruption level with the arrival of spaceweather late on 30 December. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
