Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 6 January 2021 - 21 January 2021

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Quakes were moderate during the period, the late Bligh Sound 4.6 giving some substance to an otherwise low magnitude period.
Location success turned out to be excellent, despite weak precursor signal giving low confidence.
Quakes came on cue with spaceweather, leaving a week long period from 14 January with no Mag 4 quakes when spaceweather faded..
A new period is likely to build slowly from 22 January.
7 January.
30km North of Gisborne 3.6 4.35am
SW of Snares Islands 4.7 11.46am
10 January.
St Arnaud 3.9 9.04pm
12 January.
Northeast of East Cape 4.1 11.21pm
13 January.
20km North of Gisborne 3.8 7.50am
14 January.
Offshore Bligh Sound 4.6 6.37am

Update. 13 January 10.30pm
12 January.
Northeast of East Cape 4.1 11.21pm
13 January.
20km North of Gisborne 3.8 7.50am
A brief period of quakes has arrived late on 12 January in response to the late arrival of spaceweather.
The forecast outlook for possible Mag 5 in Gisborne, East Cape is mostly justified despite low magnitude.
Spaceweather hasn't lasted and the period has probably ended, residual quakes if any are more likely in risk locations from this forecast period.
New spaceweather isn't due for at least a week.

Update. 12 December 10.00am
Spaceweather expected very early 11 December has showed up a day late and has some push.
Quakes are likely to become more frequent on 12 December.

Update. 12 December 12.00am
The forecasted spaceweather for early 11 December hasn't arrived.
Local quakes are quiet.
Mild spaceweather is arriving as this update is posted.
Infrequent quakes are possible on 12 January.
The period is likely to end 12 January.

Update. 11 December 12.00am
10 January.
St Arnaud 3.9 9.04pm
Local quakes are largely quiet since spaceweather faded on 7 January.
The period is active in the Southwest Pacific but New Zealand has remained largely quiet during the period.
Biggest local quake at St Arnaud was well after the forecast period ended but was at least in a risk location.
Brief new spaceweather is due about now and may give a burst of quakes to New Zealand.
Risk locations haven't changed much during the last few days so the original forecast map is retained.
St Arnaud is added to Mag 4 risk locations.
New Brighton remains Mag 3 risk.
Possibility Mag 5 East Cape, Gisborne. Confidence=low.

Update. 7 January 10.30pm
7 January.
30km North of Gisborne 3.6 4.35am
SW of Snares Islands 4.7 11.46am
A brief period of spaceweather on 6 January hasn't been enough to drive much Pacific quake action and conditions in New Zealand are largely quiet during the period.
Biggest mainland quake Gisborne 3.6 is at least in a risk location.
No news from the vulcanologists since 30 December...Ruapehu remains at Level 2 Alert.
The crater lake is probably cooling, tremor is low and an eruption has seemed unlikely since the 29 December peak.
Quakes, if any are more likely in risk locations from this period.
A new forecast period begins late 10 January.

Forecast. 6-7 January2020.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Fiordland, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, St Arnaud, Murchison, Kapiti, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Gisborne, Tokomaru Bay, East Cape, Te Kaha, North of New Plymouth.
Mag 3 risk locations are Rolleston, New Brighton, Sumner.
Volcanos quiet.