Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 6 January 2021 - 10 January 2021

Click to Enlarge

The Pacific was active during the period, quakes and eruptions were steady particularly in the SW Pacific.
The forecast period was mistakenly ended prematurely on 7 January with fading spaceweather.
Mixed quake location success, Northern Vanuatu the only real success.
Eruptions at familiar volcanos continued at moderate levels.
New spaceweather is due early 11 January.
6 January.
Kermadec Islands/Raoul Island 6.2 7.20pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Kilauea, Ebeko.
7 January.
West Molucca Sea 6.1 9.59am
8 January.
Southwest of Raoul Island 6.3 1.28pm
Vanuatu/South of Aneityum 6.1 5.01pm
Eruption Etna, Sinabung, Merapi, Pacaya, Sakurajima.
10 January.
Inland Atacama 6.1 4.54pm
Vanuatu/10km NE Ambae 6.1 7.48pm

Update. 7 January 10.30pm
7 January.
West Molucca Sea 6.1 9.59am
The forecast period has probably ended.
Briefly strong spaceweather on 6 January has rapidly faded.
Quakes, if any are more likely in risk locations ahead of new spaceweather due late 10 January.

Update. 6 January 11.00pm
6 January.
Kermadec Islands/Raoul Island 6.2 7.20pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Kilauea, Ebeko.
Fluctuating spaceweather, briefly strong, set in on cue with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection from a filament eruption followed by a coronal hole windstream.
Pacific has remained mostly quiet with the fluctuations, eruptions are ongoing and moderate.
The period seems likely to be volcanic at the expense of quakes.

Forecast. 6-7 January 2021.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Northern Vanuatu, Timor, West of Mindanao, Southern Marianas Islands, Northeast of Honshu, Adak Island, California/Pinnacles National Park, North of Valdivia, South Sandwich Islands.
Familiar ongoing eruptions may increase.
Etna, Soufriere, Kilauea, Merapi, Sinabung, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Kliuchevskoi, Pacaya.