Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 11 January 2021 - 21 January 2021

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Quakes were steady during the period and for several days afterwards, giving patchy timing success and poor location success.
Biggest quake at Lake Baykal 6.7 is a tough location to forecast, the forecast pick for Eastern Honshu not far from the Hokkaido 5.9 but not close enough.
The forecast heavily chased quakes in Eastern Indonesia and Southern Marianas and quakes were active in the region but frustratingly outside the many risk locations.
Eruptions continued at familiar locations with a big hotspot at Indonesia.
Pyroclastic eruptions at Semeru, Sinabung, Merapi and continuing low level action at Lewotolo.
Additionally, the biggest floods in 50 years in Southern Kalimantan.
Very cold snowy conditions across Asia, Eastern Europe, Northern Canada have come with the low solar activity this season.
A new moderate and probably volcanic period may begin 22 January.
12 January.
Lake Baykal 6.7 10.32am
West of Hokkaido 5.9 3.39pm
13 January.
Western Papua New Guinea 5.9 7.17am
Eruption Pacaya, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Fuego, Merapi, Kliuchevskoi
15 January.
Eastern Sulawesi 6.2 7.28am
Eruption Lewotolo.
19 January.
Inland Valparaiso 6.4 3.46pm
Eruption Etna, Kilauea

Update. 13 January 11.30pm
12 January.
Lake Baykal 6.7 10.32am
West of Hokkaido 5.9 3.39pm
13 January.
Western Papua New Guinea 5.9 7.17am
Eruption Pacaya, Fuego, Kliuchevskoi, Kilauea, Sakurajima, Merapi, Sinabung.
The late spaceweather burst has brought a quake response.
The Lake Baykal 6.7 is the biggest quake in the region for years and not on the forecast radar.
Luckily few people live in the region.
Eruptions at familiar volcanos have continued at moderate levels.
Small incandescent lava flows are constantly breaking off from the unstable lava dome in the crater of Merapi.
USGS vulcanologists report the eruption at Kilauea has picked up slightly with the resumption of weak lava fountaining.
Spaceweather is fading away and unlikely to pick up for a week.
Eruptions are likely to weaken in the next week.
Residual Mag 6 quakes if any are more likely in risk locations from this period.

Update. 11 January 11.30pm
Forecasted spaceweather for today hasn't arrived.
Pacific quakes are below Mag 6 and quiet.
Weak ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanos.
Weak spaceweather has turned up tonight, very late.
Isolated quakes are possible on 12 January.
The period is likely to end 12 January.

Forecast. 11 January 2020.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Northern Vanuatu, Makira, Timor, Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Marianas Islands, Eastern Honshu, Rat Islands, Titicaca, Atacama, Valdivia.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Etna, Kilauea, Merapi, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Kliuchevskoi, Pacaya.
The period is likely to be brief.